Wednesday, September 30, 2009

V for Vendetta

Did Willie Martinez kick sand on Mark Bradley at the beach? Or steal his lunch money in high school? Or his girlfriend? That would explain Bradley's second column in less than a week putting a cudgel to Willie Martinez.

The gist of the column is that when Les Miles determined his defense was substandard, he upgraded his defensive coordinator(s) by hiring John Chavis. And Mark Richt did nothing (save to promote Janceck to co-cordinator).

Who has two thumbs and gets no pressure...from his boss?

Let me be clear: I am not making the argument that Willie Martinez is as good as or better than John Chavis. Chavis's body of work is demonstrably better. But based solely on this season's statistics, I am puzzled by how Bradley supports his thesis. The numbers are postively underwhelming for both teams.
LSU ranks 49th nationally in total defense and 23rd in scoring defense; Georgia ranks 67th and 95th. The key difference: The Tigers are tied for fifth in turnover margin, having intercepted seven passes and recovered three fumbles; Georgia is 115th, having intercepted one pass and recovered two fumbles. (Neither team has done much sacking: Each has five in four games.
Four games into the season, LSU ranks 49th in defense and UGA ranks 67th. LSU barely cracks the top 50 against such august competition as Washington, Vanderbilt, La-Lafayette, and Little Miss State. So why is Chavis the answer?
But the belief in this space is that Chavis will instill the ethic of tenacity a big-time program must have. The belief is also that Martinez’s defense is based on the backpedal. Granted, Georgia held Arizona State to 204 yards and one offensive touchdown, but ASU might finish fifth (or worse) in the SEC East. There’s a higher standard in this conference, and Chavis has proved he can meet it.
I'll spot Bradley this: LSU's defense may not be very good right now, but it's not crazy to think Chavis will whip them into shape. Willie is what he is. But for now the jury is out until Chavis puts some statistical distance between his unit and CWM's unit.

Bradley hit the nail on the head when he identifies this key difference: LSU turns the ball over much less than Georgia. I suspect the winner on Saturday will not be the team that plays better defense; it will be the team with the fewest turnovers. If we spot the Tigers 2 TDs off turnovers like we did for the Sun Devils, we lose. Likewise, if Daryl Gamble (or anyone) can reprise last year's double-pick-six performance, Dawgs win another over LSU.

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