The Struggles Start Up Front

What's the difference between Van Gorder's saw blades of doom and the Martinez/Grantham* sieves?  I'll give you a few hints: David Pollock, Kedric Golston, Quentin Moses, Marcus Howard, Charles Johnson and Will Thompson.  Those are the defensive lineman who were on the roster in 2004, Van Gorder's last year.  All of those guys went on to leave a lasting impression on opposing quarterbacks and offensive linemen as players you had to scheme around.  If you didn't, your offense was going to get disrupted and the defensive back seven would make plays on you.  This was the cornerstone to those great defenses of the early 2000's.  Get pressure with four and let the back seven reap the benefits. (Image: Dean Legge at Dawg Post.)

I would argue that one of the chief culprits in the current defensive erosion into mediocrity has been the inability to get pressure with our four down linemen.  That has been a direct result of the recruiting battles we have both won and lost in the period of 2005 to 2008. Of all the defensive line recruits in that period signed by Georgia who were from the State of Georgia, only one has been an outstanding player: Justin Houston.  All the rest of our Georgia recruits were either average players, nonqualifiers, discipline casualties, medical casualties, or are too young to evaluate (including almost our entire DL this year).  That group includes Corey Moon, Brandon Sesay, Rod Battle, Brandon Wood, Michael Lemon, Demarcus Dobbs, Neland Ball, DeAngelo Tyson, Toby Jackson, and Cornelius Washington.

In compiling that list though, I was surprised to see how few good recruits the State of Georgia turned out in that four year period.  The Peach State has an excellent record of producing defensive lineman, as evidenced by the group on the 2004 roster.  Between 2005 and 2008, though, the state produced zero D-line All-Americans and only three first team all-conference players: Eric Norwood (an All-American and All-SEC outside LB at South Carolina), Allen Bailey (All-ACC at Miami), and Cam Heyward (All-Big 10 at Ohio State).  Jermaine Cunningham was a second team All-SEC selection at Florida.  So, of all the DL prospects in Georgia, only three were difference makers on the D-line and we missed on all but one. 

What does this tell us?  First, it shows that the talent pool in Georgia over the past few years was much more limited than in the 2000-2004 classes.  Second, when there was a prominent prospect on the board, we weren't likely to get them. (See also, Kyle Moore and Omar Hunter.)

Until we can start to land serious D-line prospects, either from our state or otherwise, I wouldn't expect the defense to get substantially more intimidating.  And if Georgia isn't producing them, we have to find them elsewhere.

Quinton

*It's unfair to lump Grantham in with Willie, but so far, the defense ain't much better than last year.  Some progress is evident, but we have a long, long way to go.

Source of Concern: UGA's Toughness

When you rock the "I Run This State" body paint and eye patches, the other team typically doesn't forget it. Much like celebrating in an end zone...you don't just have to back that up for one year. It's something you have to back up year after year after year.

I loved the confidence last year...I just hope the team realizes they have to live up to that swagger this year, too. Because I can assure you Tech hasn't forgotten.

PWD

Source of Concern: UGA's Defense

Georgia's 2010 defense has issues stopping misdirection, playing assignment football and consistently tackling well. Unfortunately, Paul Johnson's entire career is built on preying upon teams that have those faults.

It's no secret that one of the biggest problems in defending the Triple Option (T.O.) is having enough practice time to install the offense with your scout team in a competent enough manner to properly simulate what you'll face on game day. Teams who've had more than a week to prepare for GT's T.O. have obviously fared dramatically better than those that haven't. However, there are exceptions.

In 2008, Coach Martinez had a bye week to prepare, and it didn't help at all. The Yellow Jackets ran for a bazillion yards.

To his credit, Martinez wised up in 2009. He realized that he didn't have a bye week to get ready so he and Richt quietly came up with another plan to prepare the Dawg defense. They devoted a practice session everyday from Fall Camp to Thanksgiving to learning/defending the Tech offense. The result was a well prepared UGA defense holding Tech 109 yards below its season rushing average.

So...how will Grantham prepare the Dawgs to stop Tech? How will he overcome our fundamental problems in managing misdirection?

Well..they don't exactly run Johnson's offense in the NFL so it's hard to say what he'll do. Based on his resume, I don't think Grantham has coached against any true belly option teams since the 1996 Michigan State at Nebraska game, which ended about like every game against a mid-90s Husker team ended.

Coach Belin saw the T.O. several times at Vandy including two losses to Johnson's Navy squad and several other match-ups with military academies and other smaller programs. He probably has the deepest breadth of experience on the staff outside of Garner...and the graduate assistants.

Coach Lakatos appears to have last faced the triple option in 2006 as Paul Johnson's Navy team beat UConn 41 to 17 in Storres, CT. He has some other military school encounters vs terrible Army teams with better results, and he was at Div I-AA Maine from '95-'00 where he probably saw the T.O. quite a bit. Although, the next piece of information I have about Maine football will be the first.

Basically -- I'm saying I have concerns with our ability to stop them. GT operating without Nesbitt *should* mean a massive UGA victory, but you still have to play smart, physical football and tackle well. And UGA hasn't done much of that this season.

GT isn't going to roll over and play dead for us just because their "Heisman candidate" is out with a busted arm.

See Also:
-- Grantham braces for Option - DawgPost.com

PWD

Hoops: Enormous Week for Dawgs

I was looking for a video that showcased the end of UGA's win at Saint Louis, but I can't find anything. However, I can direct you to a first hand recap of the game from Bulldog in Exile who was in attendance. Apparently, Georgia got off to a lackluster start from an intensity standpoint, but snapped out of it before it was too late.

My top two concerns for this season are:

1. Developing the mental toughness to win on the road. This is a skill set that needs to be developed totally from scratch as UGA was 1-19 away from Athens over the prior two seasons. In fact, Georgia hasn't won more than two SEC regular season road games in a single season since the 2002-2003 season...Jim Harrick's last in Athens. That group went 4-4 on the road in SEC play. That's why Saturday's win was so huge from a momentum standpoint.

2. Staying healthy. We're already struggling here with Trey's ankle injury and now Connor Nolte's broken nose. It looks like Trey won't play this weekend in Orlando and Connor will need nose surgery when the team returns from Orlando.

Speaking of Orlando:
The bracket for the Old Spice Tournament can be found here. The TV Schedule is:

Game 1 vs. Notre Dame: Thanksgiving Night 7:00 pm ESPN2

If we win Game 1:
Game 2 vs. Cal or Temple: Friday at 5:00 pm on ESPN2

If we lose Game 1:
Game 2 vs. Cal or Temple: Friday at 7:30 on ESPNU

Game 3 on Sunday depends on what happens in the earlier games with two of the three scenarios televised on ESPN2 or ESPNU.

Three of ESPN.com's top basketball analysts/writers have Georgia winning this tourney even without Trey Thompkins. In fact, Fran Fraschilla goes as far as to say don't be surprised "if Georgia's Gerald Robinson Jr. is the MVP of this tournament. The Tennessee State transfer has given Mark Fox another scoring option this season, and he could have a breakout performance here." (See bottom of page)

PWD

Source of Confidence: UGA's Offense

I'll make this pretty brief. Georgia Tech has positively no one on their roster who can cover AJ Green. Not in single coverage and likely not in double coverage. Al Groh's only hope of
stopping Georgia on Saturday is:

A. Clog the running lanes on 1st and 2nd downs. Pummel Murray on 3rd and long and knock him out of the game.

B. Hope that Bobo stops calling plays that work.

I don't think Tech can stop UGA's offense if Murray stays upright. Only Mike Bobo and Mark Richt can stop it. If they go into this game with some pursuit of balance for balance's sake as often happens, we'll predictably run into issues. Or if Bobo stops calling plays that work, we'll predictably run into issues.

Last year, Bobo ignored his demons until the last 3rd down call of the game and pounded GT with run after run after run after run. Why? Because it was working. I personally think the answer this year will be throw it deep, then deeper still and then deeper again.

Statistically, GT has a better pass defense than run defense, but that's partially because they haven't faced very many competent passing offenses. The NC State group was probably the best unit they've seen, and NCSU went for 368 yards through the air.

If we don't try and outsmart ourselves and don't turn it over, we should win.

The next posts are the flip side of this post....My 2 concerns.

PWD

Zabransky's Revenge?

In 2005, a much-hyped Boise State team came to Athens on a quest for legitimacy.  The Broncos weren't yet the BCS perennial and national title bridesmaid they are now.  Many in the national media picked Boise as a sheik chic upset pick to beat the favored Bulldogs because of the departures of David Greene and David Pollack.  The result was, um, not pretty.

That game served Boise with notice of what it takes to play college football at the highest level.  They seemed to figure it out in subsequent years.  Recent Boise teams look nothing like the 2005 Boise team that played in Athens.  They are now poised, exciting, well-coached, and don't make a bunch of silly mistakes.  In the documentary "Out of the Blue," the Boise players that subsequently upset Oklahoma in Tempe say that during that game, some were thinking back to Athens and using that humiliation as motivation to beat the Sooners on the big stage.  (They amusingly recall that trip to Athens around the 9:00 mark in the linked video.)

Georgia has also changed quite a bit since that game.  Check out the athletes in that video.  Our bench seemed to overflow with playmakers.  In the past two seasons, however, it's been the Dawgs who give up the key turnover or make the silly mistake.  

Which brings us to the rumored rematch between Boise and UGA for the Chick-fil-a kickoff game next year.  Initially, this looks like a sound move from Greg McGarity, even though he has been outspoken about eliminating the cross-sectional home-and-home games we've enjoyed the past few years.  We swap a degraded Louisville series for a national showcase game in Atlanta without a return trip.  We keep recruiting rivals like Alabama, LSU, or Auburn from that national stage.  There's also a tidy bit of cash money split between the teams.  All of these are sound points.  The Senator makes a fine case for the game and I can't see much fault with his arguments. 

But, McGarity might also be clearing out more than just future schedule warts.  If Georgia loses to Boise to open the season next year, I think Mark Richt will be declared terminal with the Georgia fan base.  Given the steady decline in results over the past three years, there are already many UGA fans who have abandoned their hopes of a championship team with Richt at the helm.  If we get beat by Boise, a team that few SEC fans respect, the boosters are going to start passing the hat for a buyout and placing odds on the next coach.  In other words, Richt might be coaching for his job in that game.  That shouldn't be a comfortable position for Richt considering he will be without one of the greatest offensive threats in school history and his only legitimate defensive menace, both of whom will be sitting on piles of money. 

I can hear those comments now.  "You're scared."  "You're not a real Dawg if you are scared of Boise."  So, let me retort preemptively.  I'm not scared of playing Boise.  I'm all in favor of inventive and courageous scheduling.  I want to keep those cross-sectional home-and-homes going, unlike most fans and my athletic director.  I'm just pointing out that if you play a national spotlight game with fragile fanbase credibility and lose, the consequences can be long lasting and fatal.  Ask Tommy Bowden.  McGarity is throwing his coach in the deep end here.  Can Richt swim?

Since 2005, Boise has performed at its best when it was in the national spotlight.  When was the last game we won in the national spotlight? 

Quinton

Hate Under the Lights

This should be fun.  The Tech game is at 7:45 on ESPN.  We've been complaining about the lack of night games and its injurious effect on recruiting.  Well, here comes a big one against a hated rival with bowl eligibility on the line. It should be the best atmosphere in Athens the Dawgs have seen all year.

Quinton

In All Fairleyness ...

Frankly, the Dawgs performed better than I thought they would tonight.  This was one of the few games in the Richt era where I thought we had almost no shot of winning.  While we weren't that close to a win on the scoreboard, the team performed quite well in spurts.  The first quarter was some of the best football we've played all year.  Eventually, however, we just couldn't keep up with Auburn's offense.  As soon as we kicked a field goal in the third, I knew the game was essentially over because they had broken serve.  That offense was the best unit we've seen all year.  Our defense continues to struggle and I think this is just who we are, fundamentally inconsistent, not particularly physical, and perpetually susceptible to a big play.  With that said, Grantham has two weeks to get ready and I expect a good performance against a hobbled Tech offense.

The Dawgs got a takeaway early and ended up winning the official turnover battle, but I would count the onside kick as essentially equivalent to a turnover.  It was a gutsy call by Chizik, but it worked and stole a precious possession that could have helped UGA put the pressure on Auburn to keep up with us, instead of us keeping up with them.  Richt said he had prepared the team for such a tactic, but they weren't watching for it when it actually happened, I guess.  Based on Boykin's second half returns, I guess they were only concerned with the onside kick after Auburn got one and forgot to block.

Three other good things before I get to the bad.  Aaron Murray and Alec Ogletree are as good a set of freshmen as we've had in a while.  Murray is quickly becoming one of my all-time favorites.  The kid was getting beat senseless, but kept fighting at every turn.  Tonight might have been his best game of the year all things considered.  If we had a legit running game to really sell the play action fakes, he'd be an absolute mortal lock for SEC and national freshman of the year.  Ogletree needs to start every game for us until he turns pro.  He's big, physical, as sure a tackler as we have in the defensive backfield, and he needs experience.  I know he got toasted on Auburn's last touchdown, but the way they were running all night you can't blame him for the cheat step up.  And lastly, A.J. Green is the best receiver we have ever had or will ever have.  How exactly will our offense function next year without him?  Nevermind, I know.  I was in Starkville.

Now, on to the ugliness.  I've never been a fervent Auburn-hater like Kyle King.  I've always sort of considered us friendly rivals with outbursts of mild fire-hosing or drink-throwing, but nothing of the Tech or UF caliber hate.  Our games always seem to be physical, hard-fought games that are fun to watch and inspiring of a certain earned respect.  With that preface, Auburn was a dirty football team tonight.  Perhaps it is unfair to characterize an entire team for the actions of a single player, so I guess I'll say Nick Fairley is a dirty football player.  I realize I'm biased, but it's not just me who thinks Fairley was unsportsmanlike.  Every father should show his son Fairley's actions tonight and tell them "if you play like this, I'll kick your ass."  Nick Fairley's a good football player and he'll be a millionaire very soon, but he'll never be able to buy a good reputation.  He's dirty and he plays the game the wrong way.  I'll never cheer for a player to get injured, but I'm as close as I can get to breaking that rule for Fairley.

Update: Lots of Georgia blogs are on the Fairley thing, but here are some more unbiased opinions for you too. 

Quinton

UGA Basketball Update

The basketball season officially begins on Friday night in Athens as the Bulldogs face Mississippi Valley State. There are discounted tickets on sale via Georgiadogs.com. Some items of interest with the season on its way:

• Recruiting Rankings -- Rivals.com ranks the basketball signing class as #24 in the nation. Our peers in the SEC East are UK (#1), UT (#23) and UF (#25). It's nice to see us ranked, and in the mix vs. our direct competition.
  

• Georgia's 2011 Commitments -- Preseason I felt that if Georgia signed Kentavious Caldwell (best player in state), Tim Dixon (best true center in state) and two other players that this would be a good class. The hope was that one of those two players other would be Julian Royal (GT) or Nick Jacobs (Bama) and we'd go from "good to great." Obviously, that didn't happen. The addition of the raw 7'1" JUCO center will help some. The class is solid, but we're going to need more star power over the long term to make a consistent move towards the top of the SEC. Devin Langford (Wing) is still out there and considering the Bulldogs which would be a very solid addition. (Note: It appears that the LOIs for all existing commits are in)
  

• 2012 Recruiting -- Dan McDonald of UGASports.com has his recruiting 2012 hot board up. The Bulldogs are in the Top 3 for some of the true gems of the class including high profile in state players like Jordan Price (PG), Jordan Adams (SG), Evan Nolte (SF), Jamal Reid (SF) and Tony Parker (C). Evan Nolte's brother is on the team, and Reid's half-brother is Jeremy Price. Parker was HS teammates with Donte Williams. Both Jordans are Atlantic Celtics, and our success story with their AAU program is Trey Thompkins. Fox really needs to sign at least three of those kids as all represent areas of extreme need. Hopefully, he'll benefit from this group of kids seeing our 2010-2011 progress on the court.

Playing rotation once Trey returns based on what I'm hearing:

5 - Price then Barnes
4 - Trey then Barnes then Donte
3 - Travis then Connor then Thornton (til MT learns the scheme)
2 - Gerald then Travis then Brantley
1 - Ware then Gerald then Vincent

Other tidbits:

• Jeremy Price -- Fox told a recent booster gathering that Price is an emerging leader on the team. Those that have attended team banquets and practices since Fox's arrival will tell you that Price was Coach Fox's favorite subject of ball busting (both playful and otherwise), but that seems to be changing. For this team to meet it's true potential Price has to become a steady 12 points and 7 rebounds a night type performer.
  

• Chris Barnes -- Chris and Jeremy will graduate per Coach Fox, and Gerald Robinson is also on pace to graduate. This is pretty significant improvement for a program that once went 6 years with only 1 scholarship player getting a diploma during the Jirsa to Harrick transition phase.
  

• Scheduling -- Coach Fox said that in his first 2 years we will have played about 11 BCS opponents, but only 2 (Colorado and GT) in Athens. He is working with McGarity to try and fix that, but it's tough because everyone knows we beat GT, UT, Vandy and UF at home last year. Other coaches aren't stupid...they don't want to walk into a snake pit and get beat. So, it's tough getting things lined up.
  

• Stegeman -- I took a tour on Nov. 2nd, but I missed the exhibition game. Still, I can tell you that it looks absolutely incredible. It'll look even better once the graphics are finished on or before Nov. 18th.
  

• Ticket Sales -- As of 1 week ago, season ticket sales were up about 18% and contributions were up 30%. Also, the UK game sold out with only ~150 tickets going to non-donors (those with the pre-sale password). Since we have some UK fans who donate to UGA for SEC Tourney tickets, the Cats will get some tickets. However, it should be the fewest number of blue clad fans in Athens in a very, very long time. Five hundred UK fans is better than 1,500+ as we've seen in the past.
  

That's what I'm hearing.

PWD

Thoughts on Cam Newton's saga

I'll start by saying that I find it highly unlikely that Mark Schlabach, Pat Forde and Chris Low would all put their names on the original story involving Newton and Mississippi State if they didn't have it cold. Joe Schad's a different animal entirely. I'd put his willingness to put himself out on a breakable limb as pretty high, but I digress.

It's important to remember that Forde, Schlabach and Low didn't say Auburn paid for Newton, and that's an enormous issue in this story. They simply said that a representative for MSU stated that someone representing Cam Newton tried to sell Newton to MSU.

Yes...Schad is reporting that the MSU recruiters say they were outbid. However, I wouldn't put much stock into that as the MSU recruiters have nothing to lose by lying or exaggerating to Schad. And I think Schad may be the weakest link in the entire ESPN news organization .

Hello, I'm Agent Killjoy:
However, the FBI getting involved as TMZ is reporting makes it an entirely different thing. Ask yourself why and how the FBI gets involved in a case like this? They certainly don't care about college football's integrity or NCAA violations. So why get involved?

Well...laundering money through a entity with non-profit tax status like a church...that's on their radar. Using cross state phone lines to commit fraud or other crimes is also on their radar.

But again...the FBI doesn't get involved with a lot of wild goose chases. They simply don't have the time. So why this case?

Consider these three facts:

1. The NCAA has no subpoena power. They can't make a Church(es) reveal documents they don't want to reveal. Nor can they make "runners" or "agents" cooperate with them.

2. Contributing to non-profit organizations in a non-quid pro quo manner is not an NCAA violation. Take a look at a some of the big name AAU basketball programs' web sites and notice that several have very visible "Donate Now" pay pal buttons that anyone can hit. Routing money to AAU coaches via their non-profit AAU status is very common and tough for the NCAA to prove without subpoena Same with routing money through a church I'd imagine.

3. NCAA investigators are often retired/former FBI agents who love sports and hate being lied to.

So,What's more likely? That MSU, Bama or UF called the FBI into this saga? Thereby increasing their own legal costs and creating distractions for their personnel. Or that an NCAA investigator called a former co-worker at the FBI and shared his information to date.

Bringing in the FBI is perfect for the NCAA. They can then let the Feds do the heavy lifting regarding the money trail and leverage their subpoena power to find dirty secrets. Then the NCAA can read the testimony and discovery documents after the fact.

The NCAA wants real meaningful change in the recruitment of student athletes and what better way to facilitate that change than to have the parents, runners, agents and/or coaches involved in high profile cases go to jail?

So is Auburn in real trouble?
Maybe. Maybe not. If I were betting, I'd suggest that Cam Newton's dad was more likely to end up in hot water than anyone at Auburn. But Auburn officials should be sweating bullets. Just remember, there are five people that you never want to see in your front yard:

1. Jim Cantore
2. An IRS Agent
3. An FBI Agent
4. Greta Van Susteren
5. Chris Hansen

If Cam and Auburn want due process, well..they are going to get it. Sadly, just not fast enough for Georgia to benefit on Saturday.

PWD

My Overall Thoughts on the Football Program

If Georgia had played as hard against South Carolina and Mississippi State (and to a lesser degree Colorado) as they played against the Gators, I believe that things would look very different. We could still be in first place in the East, and things wouldn't look so bleak.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen. The Bulldogs played dispassionate football for much of the first five games of the season, and they put themselves in this position.

That's what bothers me.  I just can't comprehend why in 2007, 2009 and 2010 this program's coaches and players waited until the biggest prizes were off the table to decide to play their hardest and smartest football*.  It's maddening.

Georgia is not a program with 4-5 talent.  Georgia is not a program with 4-5 facilities, recruiting base, financial backing or any other infrastructural element.  There's no Jan Kemp, Ronny Contrell or Lane Kiffin-sized legitimate excuse for where we are.  We are here because Coach Richt has consistently waited too long to address the glaring problems surrounding the program, and that is why we are where we are.

It's a systemic issue of urgency that we've discussed frequently over the years.  A coach with "hair on fire urgency" doesn't do the following:

• Tolerate Neil Callaway's recruiting for 6 seasons
• Tolerate John Jancek's epic fail linebacker coaching for 5 seasons
  
• Tolerate John Fabris' idiotic kickoff "strategies" for 9 seasons
  
• Redshirt Knowshon Moreno
• Promote a kid like McClendon when *obviously* more qualified candidates were available
  
• Wait to terminate Martinez and post-pone an inevitable rebuilding process
  
• Blow off two a day practices in favor of pool parties
• Let the strength program fall to where we're getting mauled up front

So here Richt sits scrambling to find answers that are less painful than the obvious ones.  Just like last year.

It's all so avoidable, and that's what frustrates me the most. 

To clarify, I'm not calling for Mark Richt's job or his head.  I want him to be successful because he's a good person...but more importantly because the process of replacing him is TERRIFYING when you consider the realistic pool of potential candidates.

I'm simply asking that our coach manage our program in the proactive manner that is commensurate with his compensation package.  To date, we've paid Coach Richt almost $20 million.  The bulk of that money was not paid as a reward for past performances. It was paid to ensure we got consistently excellent results on a go forward basis.  Once you win the SEC, you're not Coach for Life.  You still have to drive the program forward.

We've now lost 10 games in the past two seasons, and appear very likely to lose 11 in two seasons. As a point of comparison, Jim Donnan lost 11 games in his final THREE seasons in Athens.  Regardless of Richt's excellent achievements in his first five years, he absolutely cannot take the program to a level lower than he found it.  That's simply not acceptable.

He's being paid to make the tough decisions BEFORE those decisions become obvious to those of us who've never been in the arena.  Waiting for years after we can figure it out is far too long.  And that's my frustration.

PWD


*Ht to "Whyso" via DawgPost.com's message board for helping me articulate that sentence more concisely than my original draft.  He articulated what I was trying to say in a similar manner.  Not the whole post...just that sentence.