Auburn's Issues Sound Familiar

As you no doubt know by now, HBO Real Sports with Bryant Gumble will air a report tonight that puts at least 4 Auburn players on record as having received payment from Auburn and other schools. SportsByBrooks has transcripts from the TV show, and an updated article with more color about Auburn's potential next steps.

Clearly there is blood in the water.

Before you watch tonight's broadcast, I highly recommend watching this 60 Minutes Special from 1991 regarding Eric Ramsey's tapes. Those tapes lead to Auburn being banned from TV and Bowls in 1993 as they proved Ramsey was paid to play football at Auburn. The entire pay for performance program described in this video sounds fairly similar to the upcoming HBO story.



Remember -- none of this has anything to do with Cam Newton. Except that a lot of people who hate Auburn are looking for a reason to kick the hell out of the Tigers. If they can't bust them for CamGate, they'll bust them for something else.

Here is what I believe to be true:

1. Auburn was alleged to have paid kids up to $1,000 per month during the 1989 season and prior. They were also put on probation for violations of that exact nature. Many of the same boosters referenced in that 60 Minutes video are still around the AU program.

2. $1k/month is obviously $12k a year. If you would give a kid $12k a year for up to 4 years in '89, then giving a kid $50k up front in 2010 isn't tough to put your head around. It's actually a good deal by comparison.

3. It's not the easiest thing in the world to give someone $50k in cash. To move that sort of money around...as was alleged by Mississippi State in regards to Newton ...takes a proven infrastructure. People don't just that kind of cash to kids without knowing for damn sure that it'll land in the right spot AND that their risk of being implicated (barring a confession) is minimal.

4. You can't logically expect that an alumni group powerful and successful enough to invest $150k or more in a single player wouldn't protect that investment with additional investments of $25k-50k in ultra high quality players to surround him.

5. If Newton's dad thought he could get $180k from AU, there's no way he stopped asking after the first bidder said no.

6. If Newton's dad had asked for only $50k, Mississippi State would've been the 2010 SEC Champs and Gene Chizik's tenure in Auburn would be on life support.

Auburn may never get pinched for the Cam Newton debacle. Fine.

But it's becoming more and more clear that the money movement infrastructure that Auburn created and leveraged to turn around their program in the late 80s is back in business today as alleged by the 4 former players and the HBO special. And it's even more clear that certain other members of the SEC have passed the tipping point in their tolerance for Auburn's shenanigans.

So the question is simple. Will the NCAA finally attempt to cripple that infrastructure? Because it's not about Cam Newton now. It's way past that.

PWD

Most impressive sign for S&C

My reaction was the exact same as Blutarsky's when I saw the pic of Kwame Geathers in the Banner Herald.  And that reaction was..."wow."  Or more specifically, "Who is THAT dude."

I haven't posted about Spring Practice until now, and I'll tell you why.  Because every Spring it's always the same.  "This is the best Spring we've ever had. Team chemistry is at an all time high.  We've got such great leaders. Last year, we had too many distractions.  Too many selfish guys and not enough participation in our conditioning drills / off season workouts  This year, we're working hard and participation is almost 100%.  The off season workouts were the best ever.  Man, oh man, we're in shape and ready to GATA."

I put nothing into the sound bytes this time of year.  But...but that photo of Geathers is no joke. It gives me pause.  If he's building endurance for that body, he'll be something.

It's hard not to get intrigued when you see that.

PWD

Don't blow this

UGA announced yesterday that they are relaxing tailgate restrictions on North Campus. Most of the changes make sense ... allowing you to tailgate for 5 hours instead of 4 and bringing tents and tables back.

But I still don't get why they haven't banned Styrofoam coolers. If they allow disposable equipment on campus and continually fail to provide adequate trash cans, why are they shocked that drunk people make such a mess? I'm not justifying the mess. I'm just saying...they aren't playing to the strengths and weaknesses of their target audience.

Also no word on trailers being allowed back on campus. Here's hoping that eventually gets resolved.

PWD

Mark Bradley proves my point

There's a ton of talent in this state for basketball.

PWD

The Door is Open...just walk through it

Nothing accelerates a change in the power structure within a conference like coaching changes...regardless of the sport. There's only so many wins to go around. UF fans point to Spurrier's arrival as their defining moment, but it didn't hurt that Dooley retired, Dye went on probation and LSU fell off a cliff.

You could argue the same with Richt's arrival in Athens. It didn't hurt that Spurrier resigned, Bama was in disarray and Fulmer was wildly erratic.

In hoops, Coach Fox has a massive window of opportunity.

• Georgia Tech's in state recruiting machine is on hold with the departure of Coach Hewitt.
  
• Tennessee is in purgatory pending their NCAA verdict, and they just lost arguably their most successful coach in history.
  
• With the exception of Mike Anderson at Arkansas, the coaching in the SEC West is average at best.

Sure...Calipari has Kentucky rolling, Donovan isn't going anywhere, and Stallings is the model of consistency. But there's enough wins to go around to deal with the rest of the league.

And we geography on our side.

The 2012 recruiting class has overwhelming in state talent. The Rivals Top 150 for 2012 has 14 in state players as well as two more Georgia natives playing at Oak Hill in Virginia. 10 of those 16 kids are ranked in the Top 100.

As a point of comparison, these states have the following Top 150 counts:

14 - Texas (High Major schools in state: 4 + TCU)
12 - California (High Major schools in state: 4)
7 - Florida (High Major schools in state: 4)
5 - PA (High Major schools in state: 3)
5 - OH (High Major Schools in state: 2 + Xavier)
5 - MI (High Major Schools in State: 2)
3 - Illinois (High Major schools in state: 2)
3 - NY (High Major schools in state: 2)
2 - NJ (High Major schools in state: 2)

The reason I picked those states was based on their population rank: (Per Wikipedia as of '08)

1. California - 37.1 million
2. Texas - 25.1 million
3. New York - 19.3 million
4. Florida - 18.8 million
5. Illinois - 12.8 million
6. Pennsylvania - 12.7 million
7. Ohio - 11.5 million
8. Michigan - 9.8 million
9. Georgia - 9.6 million

With less than 1/3 the population of California, we have more in state talent. Now...someone will shoot back "Yeah, but everyone recruits Georgia." Well...no kidding. Everyone recruits NY, NJ, CA and Texas, too.

Some of our biggest competition for in state talent the past few years has been Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Alabama. We have invested more in facilities than those guys ($45 million in basketball over the past 5 years). Our coaching staff is at least as stable if not more so than those. And our basketball team advanced as far or further in the tourney last year.

Get them to sign on the line that is dotted.

By the way -- I'm hearing good things about our chances with Kevin Ware, the former Tennessee signee who is ranked #56 overall in the 2011 recruiting class by Rivals.com, and he's a Top 15 guy at his position (Shooting Guard). The Vols, with the SEC's encouragement, will likely end up giving him a full release the way UGA gave Mohamed Abukar a full release to sign with UF after the Harrick saga.

Additionally, our chances are decent to land Ari Stewart as a transfer from Wake. Stewart is a 6'7" 205 lb sophomore forward who averaged 8.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game last year. He's transferring after finding life miserable on the 8-24 Demon Deacons. His points and rebounds were a little higher until things went sour in Feb. with his coach. Coming out of HS, Stewart was the #52 ranked prospect in the nation. He would have to sit out a year if he transferred.

As far as scholarships available, Georgia looks to have 1 scholarship available for 2011 signees as Connor Nolte (Jr.), former walk-on, is most likely on a year to year deal. Plus, we may get Trey and/or Travis scholarship.

If we needed an additional scholarship for 2011, we have a transfer candidate in Vincent Williams. Williams averaged 5.7 minutes in 20 games of our 33 games. Williams only played in 10 of 23 games against High Major teams plus Temple and Xavier. Kids are pretty smart. If they think you're recruiting way over them, they know what to do.

For 2012, we have scholarships from Conner, Gerald, Dustin, Trey and Travis, and that assumes no additional attrition.

The point ... the door is open. We no longer have a facilities excuse, a university commitment excuse, a rodeo excuse, or an excuse related to the tenure of our own coach vs. that of our rivals.

Now is the time to close the deal on a monster class. Separately...I hear great rumblings towards William "Shaq" Goodwin (PF Ranked #20 nationally by Rivals), Jordan Adams (SG/SF ranked #55 nationally by Rivals) and Evan Nolte (SF ranked #59 nationally by Rivals). Those guys would form the core of a very good class, but we'll need a Center and a PG, too.

PWD

Jay Rome and Malcolm Mitchell Video

More Isaiah Crowell Video

PWD

Dawgs land 2011 Hoops Commit

Coach Fox landed his fourth commitment for the upcoming 2011-2012 season as Nemanja Djurisic (6'8" and 235 lbs) committed to the Bulldogs. Djurisic will sign in April.

Djurisic is from Connecticut by way of Montenegro, a small country located between Bosnia, Serbia and Albania. He speaks fluent Serbian and English while averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds a game in high school according to Chip Towers.

The kid claims offers from NC State, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Utah and possibly Texas...which means Fox was in the right living room. He's described as a skilled European big man who can play inside and out.

More to the point, this is what interested me. Last summer, he played with the Montenegro U-18 team in the European Championships. His team wasn't very good, but his stat line isn't too shabby across 8 games:

• 24.1 minutes / game
  
• 14.1 points / game
  
• 7.0 rebounds / game
  
• 54.5% on 3 pointers
  
• 66.7% on FTs

Is he Trey Thompkins? Probably not. Is he Drazen Zlovaric? Probably not. Somewhere in between.

Not every recruit needs to be a lottery pick, but they all need to contribute. The 2003 team that was pulled from the NCAA tourney in Harrick's last season had an RPI of 5 before the NCAA Tourney. That team had:

1 Lottery Pick (Jarvis)
1 2nd Round Pick (Rashad)
1 Undrafted Free Agent with a solid NBA career (Damien)
1 2nd Team All-SEC player (Ezra)

Then it complemented those guys with Daniels, Thomas and Jonas. Everyone needs to contribute, and this kid sounds like he can contribute. Heaven knows, we have playing time at the PF and C positions with or without Trey's return.

As for the prime time guys like Caldwell-Pope..from what I've been reading I like our chances with Evan Nolte (SF), Jordan Adams (SG/SF) and Jarmal Reid (SF/PF). That's two guys with brothers on the team and another guy (Adams) who was deciding between us and a UT program that's about to lose their coach. If we add Shaq Goodwin (PF) and another big man to that mix, I'll be thrilled.

See Also:
-- Dawgs get Verbal - ABH

PWD

All eyes on Travis and Trey

Lots of interesting articles about the waiting game to see Travis and Trey's intentions. If they were both to return, the addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the mix would give Georgia the bomber they desperately need to bust zones and open things up inside for Trey.

There haven't been many Georgia rosters that had a slasher (Travis), an All SEC post player (Trey), a bomber (KCP) and a steady PG (Ware). I doubt we'll be so lucky as to them both back, but why not hope for a miracle.

Their return would also buy Fox enough time to get 5-6 of the uber talented 2012 in state recruiting class on campus. For more articles:

-- What now for Georgia
-- Quick Exit Shouldn't spoil Season
-- Almost but not quite
-- Different look for UGA next season
-- All eyes on Travis and Trey

Update: Numerous sites are saying the 2011 draft could be the weakest in either many years or potentially ever. For a guy like Travis or Trey, the agents will position this weakness as an opportunity for them to fill a talent void and be drafted high. However, the reality is that the weakness of the draft also translates into much less predictability in terms of player placement.

Meaning...if you're an NBA GM and you believe that there's very little difference in the #10-#40 or #30-60 players in the draft, your draft selection order will be all over the place. A kid like Travis or Trey may think he's going late 1st round and end up watching the entire process end without being picked.

It's also important to remember that getting drafted in the NBA's 2nd Round means nothing. You are not guaranteed a roster spot in the NBA unless you go in 1st round.

Ultimately - players view draft projections and advice the way most people view weather forecasts. They keep looking around until they find one they like. Which is why I think Trey is gone, and we'll be lucky to keep Travis. Just hope for the best. What other option is there?

PWD

Hoops: Moving Forward

In Coach Fox's first season, the team's record was 14-17 overall and 5-11 in the SEC. In his second season, we improved to 21-12 overall with a 9-7 SEC record. By any definition, that's tremendous improvement. The kind of improvement that warrants pay increases and contract extensions. The kind of improvement that should facilitate more high profile recruits selecting Georgia.

However, everything isn't sunshine and lollipops.

In Fox's first season, UGA lost 8 of those 17 games in the final two minutes. The reasons for those losses included lack of depth, athleticism in the back court, experience, mental toughness, etc. In fact, Coach Fox said last year that having Gerald Robinson on that team would've resulted in 6-7 more wins. It's tough to argue with his logic given that the team improved by exactly 7 wins this year.

However, we did lose 8 games again this year where we had a legit chance to win in the final 2 minutes. This year, it wasn't about athleticism in the back court. It was a parade of different issues resulting in a series of car crash like final moments.

Regardless, a major point of emphasis for the program going forward has to be avoiding what looks an ABC After School Special on the Dangers of Sugar Crashed Bed Wettings. Some of this will be resolved with recruiting more natural leaders as well as more talented kids overall. But whatever it is...it has to be fixed.

The good news again...we won 50% more games than last year with the addition of only two more players of note in Robinson and Thornton.

The bad news...we're likely losing Trey, Travis, Jeremy and Barnes off a team who's bench only contributed to 14 percent of the points and who finished 281st in the country in bench minutes played. The rest of the bad news...Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is only one kid.

Fox can and should build on this moment. He just has to close the door on more recruits and find a way to toughen up the ones we have next year...both mentally and physically. We have to walk through the door.

I'm optimistic for the future, but I'll be much more optimistic if we close guys like Evan Nolte, Jordan Price, Jordan Adams, Jarmal Reid, Tony Parker, Shaq Goodwin, etc for the 2012 recruting class. We'll have much more visibility into that process over the next 4-6 months.

PWD

Coach Richt RoboCalls Start April 1

Coach Richt's phone won't be making outgoing calls to recruits in April because of the "missing running back" formation trick for Isaiah Crowell.  Richt wanted to illustrate the importance of Crowell as a running back prospect.  On a Crowell visit, Richt had the offensive players line up in formation without a tailback.  Richt and Crowell viewed the 10 man formation from Richt's office overseeing the field.  Crowell was then no doubt told he was the missing piece of the offense.  Caleb King and Washaun Ealey were lured to another part of the football complex during these events by the promise that they could view a valid Georgia driver's license.  The tactic was a prohibited "game day simulation" and will cost Richt his calls to recruits during the April evaluation period.

Surely, we can figure out a way around that punishment.  I suggest those damn robocallers that make me avoid answering my home phone during any political election.  

So, if you're a UGA recruit who hasn't already committed to Alabama, expect a call every night around dinnertime that goes something like this: 

Recruit: "Hello?"

RoboCall Machine: [Long Pause] "Hello, this is Coach Richt, head coach of the 2010 Liberty Bowl runner-up, Georgia Bulldogs.  I care very deeply about your future as a man and a football player.  The University of Georgia is a great place for you to consider playing college football for.  It is a top twenty public university, plays in the SEC, and has many, many pretty girls for you to court in a Godly way.   If you haven't already been to one of our Junior Days, please consider coming up for a visit.  I can see you and talk to you if you come see me.  Bring your folks, too.  Hope you have a great spring.  Pretty girls.  Start right away.  NFL potential.  Hedges.  Blah, blah, blah.  Go Dawgs!"

Quinton

Dear Bama fans

I know you're pissed about being left out. But don't point your anger this way. And honestly...why get mad at UAB? Your anger should be pointed at Anthony Grant. How did he not have you ready to play in Puerto Rico? The loss to 11 win Iowa probably cost you 15 RPI points, and the loss to St. Peter's probably cost you another 10-15 RPI spots.

It just goes to show you. St. Peter doesn't just guard the entrance to the Pearly Gates. He also watches over Bracketville.

PWD

We're In!

For only the second time in the past 9 seasons, Georgia fans were able to watch the March Madness selection show with genuine intrigue. Personally, I felt like we had about 40-50% chance of getting into the Dance with the most likely destination being Dayton.

Mostly, because I felt the tourney committee would look at Bama's resume and say "No way they belong." And keep us out of the tourney along with Bama to justify the Tide being omitted.

Not only did we make it in a as a 10 seed...but we're one of the higher rated 10 seeds if proximity to home has any bearing on the situation.

That said. We're in. Now, we have to prove that we belong. I like our chances in Round 1. The match-up in Round 2 is obviously brutal, and the ticket situation will be one of the toughest of any location. But remember...all the Duke fans holding tickets are pulling for us.

More thoughts later. Last night was mainly spent walking around in a daze.

Oh...and Dear Coach Fox...all is forgiven on the Bama implosion. We're in and that's all that matters. Even if we had beaten Bama, our chances in this tourney wouldn't be dramatically better as an 8 or 9 seed.

See Also:
-- Drama ends with NCAA birth - Macon.com
-- UGA to face Washington - ABH
-- The Matchup - Seattle Times
-- Scouting UGA - Tacoma News


PWD

10 million page views

Sometime last month, we served up our 10,000,000th page view. Thanks for visiting. I know I haven't been updating a ton lately, and I don't anticipate that changing. But I do appreciate the visits.

It was kind of like this

I still can't believe what I saw at the Georgia Dome. Crap twice and fall back in it.

Victory and Bubble Watching

Good solid win by the Georgia Bulldogs today. Some stats of interest from the box score:

• Assists/Turnovers - Only 7 turnovers to 13 assists. It's tough to lose with numbers like that. In fact, any game where Gerald Robinson has 6 assists and 1 turnover is a good game.
  
• Rebounding - Georgia out rebounded Auburn 36 to 22. I actually counted three separate offensive rebounds off Georgia free throws.
  
• Minutes Played - The minute totals look a little high for such a blowout with Trey, Dustin, Travis and Gerald all cracking the 31 minute mark. However, it's helpful to remember that the last 10 minutes of that game were played at a pretty mellow pace. We're about as fresh as we can be given our situation. Price should be particularly fresh given his foul troubles and only 22 minutes played.
  
• Free Throws - I love that we got to the line enough to shoot 31 free throws, but we can't leave 9 points in miss freebies at the line against better teams. 71% isn't awful, but it's not good enough.

As for the bubble watch...it looks like Colorado is likely in the tourney after their big upset of Kansas State today. At this point, we need them to win as many as possible. Their RPI was 67th before their win against KSU (RPI: 18) That may be enough to get them into the dance. If they could some how pull off a miracle tomorrow against Kansas, I think we'd have another Top 50 RPI win on the books from our home game against the Buffs earlier in the season. Unlikely, but...

Around the nation, some games that would help us out:

• Michigan State vs. Iowa - At the half, they were only up by 2 at the half over a rancid Iowa team. A loss would soften the bubble for us and knock Sparty out of the bracket.
  
• Virginia Tech vs. GT - a part of me hopes GT wins to knock Va Tech out of the dance and to prolong their nightmare with Hewitt. Either way, UGA wins.
  
• Washington State vs. Washington - Lunardi has WSU on the bubble while Jerry Palm doesn't. A WSU win over UW would put pressure on the bubble for us.
  
• Clemson vs. Boston College (tomorrow) - I feel like BC is already in the tourney. Both Lunardi and Palm have Clemson as a 12 seed as of this morning. With an RPI around 61, a loss to BC should get them off our bubble. A win could be a problem for us.

Don't get me wrong. I want to win tomorrow vs. Bama and end all doubt. But I'm not sure what we're in without some help if we lose to the Tide.

Simple answer -- keep winning.

PWD

Given that it's March Madness and all

If you happen to see John Wallace at an airport, sports bar or even church, I think it's entirely appropriate to punch him dead square in the nuts.

Just tell him you're a Georgia fan. Fair is fair after all.

PWD

Somebody Check the Weather Forecast

Positively enormous game for Georgia today at 1:00 pm against Auburn. It's almost universally accepted that if Georgia loses to an Auburn team with an RPI of 250+, they are NIT bound. It's a stance that I honestly can't argue. Who knows if winning this game will be enough to get us into the Tourney, but we're definitely out with a loss.

To turn this program around long term, Coach Fox will have to raise the recruiting bar to an entirely new level. Convincing more kids like Kentavious Caldwell to sign with us means he needs to prove to the kids, the HS coaches and the AAU coaches that he can do 3 things:

1. Make the NCAA Tourney and win games when he gets there
2. Put Georgia AAU kids into the NBA
3. Play in front of big crowds at home

Fox's recruiting pitch is "Come to Georgia and all your dreams can come true. There's no reason to leave the state to make your dreams come true." That pitch is rock solid, but it doesn't resonate without those 3 things. So far, we've only shown that we can do #3 for big opponents. This is Fox's best shot at making the tourney. We have to walk through this open door.

Tickets today will be easy to come by. If you show up at the Georgia Dome, you will get a ticket at a reasonable price. Yes, we're in the same session as UK, but their fans don't really start pouring into Atlanta in overwhelming numbers until Friday. They honestly don't expect to be playing on Thursday in this tourney.

We need some fans getting loud. Take a long lunch hour and come over.

As for the weather remark, I can't help but remember the 2008 Tornado Tourney. Watching the Dawgs in person at the McThriller Dome win the SEC was one of the Top 5 sports moments of my entire life. I remember writing this article after we won the second game the prior day. I was completely out of hand.

The forecast today looks reasonable, but a little bad weather never hurts.

PWD

SEC Tournament Scenarios

Georgia can get as high as the #2 Seed in the SEC East. However, it requires all of the following to happen:

1. UGA winning out to finish 10-6 in the East
2. Vandy losing to UK tonight and losing to Florida to finish 9-7.
3. UK beating Vandy and losing at Tennessee to finish 9-7.

It doesn't matter what UT does against South Carolina in the above scenario.

UGA can get the #3 Seed in the East; however, it requires all of the following:

1. UGA winning out to finish 10-6
2. Vandy beating UK. It doesn't matter what happens in the Vandy vs. UF game because UGA will lose the tie breaker to Vandy anyway.

In the scenario above, it doesn't matter what happens to Tennessee in either of their games. There's probably another scenario, but it's much less obvious.

Basically, Georgia will lose the head to head against Vandy, UK and UT due to SEC Tie Breakers. Also, we'll come in last in a three way tie to any of those teams due to SEC Tie Breaker rules. We must win out.

If Georgia goes 10-6, we can still get stuck with the 4 seed if Vandy goes 1-1 and UK wins out. Again...here we finish 3rd in a three way tie.

Technically speaking, RollBamaRoll says our seeding probability is:

65.2% -- 4 seed
16.9% -- 3 seed
15.5% -- 5 seed
2.4% -- 2 seed

He explains his methodology at the link. Bottom line...if we go to 9-7, we're looking at a 4 or 5 seed.

See Also:
-- UK tiebreaker scenarios - John Clay


PWD