Bowl Projections for UGA

As of tonight, Chris Low, Mark Schlabach and Bruce Feldman all think we're going to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl likely vs. Virginia Tech. Sportsline thinks we're still heading to Birmingham, but I just can't see that happening. Mark Bradley is waffling, but leaning towards Nashville.

The ESPN folks who think we're coming to Atlanta are basing that on the idea that Ole Miss and Tennessee are going to some combination of the Outback and the Cotton Bowls. That is likely the best case for UGA from a bowl prestige standpoint.

Here are some of the complicating factors that could make our destination murky until the final hour:

• Cotton Bowl + SWC Relationships: It's not unreasonable for the Cotton Bowl to pass on Ole Miss making a return visit. They are allowed to slip down a notch and pick up a team like Arkansas. The Hawgs went to Dallas after the 2007 and 2001 seasons, and the bowl committee likes having the Hawgs. An Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State match-up would sell a ton of tickets. If they take the Razorbacks, the Outback would take Ole Miss. At that point, the Chick-Fil-A has to choose between UGA, SC and UT. Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee would be a very compelling game, and that could slip us to the Music City or lower.
  
  
• Outback Bowl + UK Relationships: The founder of Outback Steakhouse is a UK Alum, and he was instrumental in developing the Outback Bowl into what it is today. He was also the key factor in bringing the 1998 Wildcat team to Tampa despite their 7-4 record, despite coming off a 59-21 blowout loss to Tennessee and despite UGA having a better record at 8-3 and a head to head win. A much easier case could be made for bringing UK in 2009 back to Tampa. They've gone the longest between visits to Tampa compared to UGA, UT and SC, and they would be fairly excited about the trip. If UK goes here and Ole Miss is in the Cotton Bowl, we're back to the Chick-Fil-A bowl choosing between UGA and UT. This could also send us to the Music City or lower. I see this as a remote possibility.
  

All we do know at this point is:

1. Bama and UF are obviously BCS bound.

2. LSU is a near mortal lock for the Capital One Bowl

3. South Carolina isn't going to the Outback again.

4. Ole Miss isn't slipping past the Outback.

5. Tennessee won't slip past the Liberty or Music City (which pick simultaneously)

6. UK is going to have problems getting into the Liberty and PapaJohn's Bowls. Those games are the same date as UK vs. Louisville in basketball with near overlapping time slots. If UK were to end up in B'ham, it would be because no one else wanted them.

7. The Chick-Fil-A Bowl is unlikely to put together a rematch between UGA/GT or Clemson/SC.

The only bad scenarios to me are playing Northwestern in the Outback or Boston College in the Music City Bowl. Facing VT in the Chick-Fil-A, UNC or FSU in the Music City or Wisconsin in the Outback works for me.

Where do you think we end up?

PWD