Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Ranking the Difficulty of Remaining B-ball Games

To have any shot whatsoever at any post-season tourney including the NIT, CBI or CIT, would require a winning record which means winning at least 16 games. In reality, we'd need 17 wins to lock us in somewhere, but 16 would at least get us into the mix.

The Bulldogs were 8-5 through the non-conference schedule. The most realistic options for making it to 16 wins are:
    Option A:
    8-5 non-conference
    8-8 SEC Regular Season
    0-1 SEC Tourney

    Option B:
    8-5 non-conference
    7-9 SEC Regular Season
    1-1 SEC Tourney
There are other scenarios, but they are much less reasonable. With that in mind, here's my shot at ranking the difficulty of the remaining 12 SEC Regular Season Games.

Difficulty: Date Time TV Opponent
1 2/3 7:00 p.m. CSS Arkansas
2 2/13 4:00 p.m. SECN SC
3 2/20 4:00 p.m. SECN Alabama
4 2/10 9:00 p.m. CSS at Auburn
5 3/6 5:00 p.m. FSN at LSU
6 1/30 7:00 p.m. FSN at SC
7 2/27 4:00 p.m. SECN Florida
8 2/6 8:00 p.m. FSN Vandy
9 2/25 7:00 p.m. ESPNU at Vandy
10 1/27 7:00 p.m. CSS at UF
11 2/17 8:00 p.m. SECN at UT
12 3/3 8:00 p.m. SECN Kentucky

Just remember that every time we lose a game against a team with an easier degree of difficulty, we have to make up that win against a team with a tougher degree of difficulty.

One piece of minor good news...we only play two more road weekend games this season. In the SEC, the weekend crowds are much larger and tougher. It's not a big thing, but it's a little helpful. The bad news...we've only won 2 road games in the past three seasons.

In case you were wondering, we'd probably need 10 SEC wins plus two SEC tourney wins to make the NCAA Tourney, and we're a long way from talking about that. The next two games at Florida on Wednesday and at South Carolina on Saturday are big opportunities. Particularly, the game vs. the Chickens.

What are your thoughts? Do I have the rankings wildly out of order?

PWD

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