Expansion Wrap Up

Let's say you throw a party for kids in the neighborhood. And let's say that kids who attend the party receive $10 million per year for the next 20 years. While kids that don't attend the party lose $20 million a year for the next 20 years. What do you think will happen?

Of course, parents are going to want their kids there. Not just one kid mind you...but multiple kids. And don't forget cousins, grandchildren and nephews.

That's among the reasons why I said last month, that I didn't see a 16-team league happening.

In the end, I think the Big 10 will expand by 1 team and the Pac 10 will go to 12. And most of the 16 team talk is brilliantly aimed at getting the Big 10 the best possible team to reach out to them for inclusion.

From there, all the leagues will take a deep breath. Because the contractual complexities of moving to 16 teams in one or more conferences are just too great. And University presidents are too risk adverse.

Regardless, Andy Katz's article about the mysterious Trilateral Coalition / Black Hand stopping the Pac 10 expansion is the best read of the entire Bay of Pigskin roller coaster ride.

Two schools who faired better than most think in expansion are:

• Iowa - The Hawkeyes and Huskers have only played six times since World War II, and only twice since Reagan's first term in office. This despite Lincoln being located only 60 miles from the Iowa state line. Right now, Iowa and Nebraska are on comparable footing in football. This is the perfect time for them to become rivals. More than likely, Iowa vs. Nebraska will become the season ending game for both programs, and that's the sort or big time match-up Iowa needs to raise demand for tickets. There's nothing like a heated border war to ignite the fan passion. Also, Iowa State can't sell area recruits on getting to face Nebraska every year. It's another hit to the Cyclones...which is also a win for Iowa.
  
  
• Colorado - They are taking a lot of heat for leaving the Big XII, but it makes total sense to me. When the Buffs were at their best, they were recruiting heavily out of Los Angeles. The rumors are that the Buffs will be in the same division with UCLA and USC which means a yearly game in LA. They are trading in division games against Nebraska and 4 teams that hardly get anyone in that part of the world excited for USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State and likely Utah. That's a towering home run from a ticket sales and fan interest standpoint. TV money is great, but you have to recruit players and sell tickets to win games, and they are better positioned to do that than ever.

What's your overall thought on Expansion? Bottom line for me...I'm glad we ended up where we did at the BCS level, but I don't think we're done at the mid-major level. See next post for more info.

PWD