Sunday, February 21, 2010

Profiles in Hope: Basketball Stats

As of Feb. 20th, here are some SEC Stats of note that may encourage you:

SEC Stats
Category Rank
Free Throw Percentage 1st
Field Goal Percentage 3rd
3-Point FG Percentage 1st
3-Point FGs Made 11th
Rebounding Margin 2nd

Georgia spent the bulk of the past six years pissing away opportunities at the free throw line only to make a complete turnaround this year. To me that proves that free throw shooting is simply a question of emphasis. Travis Leslie's FT percentage jumped ~20 points in one year, and he's not alone.

The FG and 3-point FG shooting percentage is interesting to me because it suggests we're taking better shots, and we're picking our spots better. That offsets some of my concerns about being 11th in the league in scoring. Those stats suggests that talented players will get their looks for Coach Fox. It speaks to efficiency.

The rebounding margin is another positive all of our real contributors in the rebounding area should return next season.

However, there are some stats where we're not exactly jumping off the page...until you look closer at the numbers.
Category Rank
Assists 7th
Steals 9th
Turnovers 11th
Turnover Margin 12th
Assists to Turnover
11th
Assists / FG Attempt 1st
Assists / FG Made 2nd

The turnover situation clearly is the biggest issue on this team, but it's followed closely by the lack of steals. Both issues are caused by the lack of athleticism and depth at the guard positions. This is an area where Gerald Robinson, Jr. should help address immediately.

If you cut the turnovers by just two per game, the team would move from outrageously bad in that category to just mediocre. That's not asking too much. A two turnover/game difference based on our field goal percentage would suggest adding two more points to the scoring average. Add one more steal per game, and you're talking reducing the other team's scoring total by roughly one per game...again based on their FG percentage.

How big is that three point swing? The Bulldogs lost the following squeakers this year:
    Wofford by 3
    Ole Miss by 4
    Mississippi State by 3
    South Carolina by 1
    Arkansas by 4
If we had won 4 of those 5 games, we would be sitting here at 16-9 overall and 7-5 in SEC...ie on the bubble instead of 12-13 and 4-8 in league play.

I posted the assists per make and attempt to show that the offensive improvement with Fox is staggering, and we're definitely getting good looks created by ball and player movement. We just need to upgrade our quickness and handles with the ball. That's why so many folks are so excited about adding Robinson next year. Or as Ricky McPhee told UGASports.com:
"[Robinson] helps us out with the scout team, getting us prepared for each team we play. I'm really impressed with what he brings," McPhee said. "I really think he'd give Devin Downey a run for his money for quickness."
If Richy is right, we're not that far off.

PWD

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