9 Game Schedules in the SEC: Baby and the Bathwater?

I realize I am treading into Blutarsky's territory by quoting Michael Elkon, but Elkon hit on something this morning at Braves and Birds that I have been thinking about for nearly a year:

I seriously wonder about Georgia fans who would normally pay thousands of dollars for season tickets looking at their athletic director and saying “you sacrificed the Auburn game, which is often the best game on the home schedule, in order to preserve a glorified scrimmage.  Screw you, I’ll buy tickets to the games that I really want to attend on Stubhub.” 

Greg McGarity and his colleagues shouldn't be in panic mode yet, but it does beg the point: if the TV money comes in big early, do the ADs really care if the stadiums aren't full for the Noon kickoffs against Troy?

Putting aside the Hartman contributions required to get to the purchase threshold (and assuming the student tickets net the same price as the other tickets), there is around $3.25M in ticket revenue from the regular tickets for a game in Sanford. Will the drop off in ticket sales be enough to matter?

For schools like Georgia, read: any SEC school that collects a substantial amount of money as 'buy in' to be able to purchase tickets, that is where the ADs have to worry. For a number of years, the ebb and flow of Hartman money has been dictated by the quality of the team Georgia has fielded in the immediately preceding years. Signs are pointing to a phase were that the ebb and flow will be based as much on what teams are playing  in Athens as anything. If the home slate is Georgia State, FAU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, do you get excited enough to bump your contribution to ensure you get tickets? If the TV money is good enough, do the ADs care?

The one thing Elkon isn't figuring in is the intrinsic, and subjective, value of contributing to the Hartman Funds of the conference (belonging to an 'exclusive' group, helping the student athletes at a place you love, tax shelters) and being able to sit in the same place year in and year out.  What he likely figures, though, is the same people I complained about yesterday, the students, are next year's new Hartman Fund donors. If they aren't excited about seeing a noon kickoffs against a slate of Coastal Carolinas now, why would they be when the tickets are more expensive to come by?

I'm not talking about just Georgia/Auburn and Alabama/Tennessee. The LSU/Florida game and the Arkansas/South Carolina games have been very big draws for those fan bases, something I would expect of the Texas A&M/Missouri game. Same could be said for the value of the match up for television.

Paul mentioned it the other day, and I think he's right. Follow the money. What we see as throwing the baby out with the bathwater, Slive and the ADs see as simply cleaning the wash tub out to hold more money. In the end, if the money is right, the stadium is merely a prop for the show happening on the field. The NFL learned that a long time ago (think the 70's when nearly half of all games were blacked out in home markets, but the national product was sold and broadcast to great success). No one really cares that the Steelers/Bengals game is sold out, at least outside of Southern Ohio/Western Pennsylvania, we just want to see Hines Ward and AJ Green play catch, or Ben Roethlisberger prisonshowered sacked.

And to answer Elkon's question, I don't know what it'll mean to ticket sales over the long term, but it probably won't matter either way.

TD

The problem with an 8 game SEC schedule

I think it was Tony Barnhart who originally said a year or two ago that a 14 team league playing 8 conference games wasn't really a conference at all. It was two federations with a title game.

By going with a 6-1-1 rotation where we keep the Auburn game alive every year, Georgia would play Alabama twice every 12 years. We'd only get them at home once over that period.

Consider our series with Clemson. In 1987, Georgia stopped playing Clemson on an annual basis. We booked two year deals with them in '90-'91, '94-'95, '02-'03 and '13-14. Let's ignore the future dates for a moment.

From 1988-2011, we faced Clemson six times (3 at home) over a 24 year period. Applying the 14 team, 8 league game model to the past would mean that we would have faced Alabama 4 times during that same period. Only twice at home. Same with LSU.

Rotational Models:

• 5-2-1: Used by the SEC from '92-'01 while at 12 teams. This model meant your four non-permanent opponents only came to Athens once every 8 years.
  
• 5-1-2: Used by the SEC from '02-Today. Your five non-permanent opponents come to Athens once every five years.
  
• 6-1-1: Proposed model for a 14 team league playing 8 games. You get the 6 non-permanent opponents at home once every 12 years.
  
• 6-1-2: A 14 team model that brings non-permanent opponents to Athens once every six years. Not noticeably different than today.

PWD

SEC saying it will stick to 8 league games

The SEC's PR folks said today there has been no discussion about moving to nine conference games. You can take from that one of three things:

A. The SEC really doesn't want to schedule tougher games and South Carolina's president didn't know what he was talking about when he said 9 games was the end destination.

B. The SEC wants to push for 8 games and give the 9th game up in contract renegotiation with its TV partners. Basically, the talk is just negotiation tactics.

C. Option B is true, and the SEC will end up at 9. However, it wants 8 games for the next two years to lessen the buyout requirements for future previously scheduled future games.

I'm going with option B. If we play 8 league games next year, we're almost definitely dropping Bama for a road game at Missouri. The only way that wouldn't happen would be as part of a larger reshuffling which moves our "home" game vs. UF to odd numbered years from its current even numbered years. That sounds easy, but it's a change that would involve more than just UGA and UF.

PWD

Grading Slive on Expansion

With the SEC's addition of Missouri, I go back and forth on what I think of Slive's handiwork. My strong preference initially was for Virginia Tech to join as the league's 14th member. Geographically, I felt that made more sense. However, the Missouri addition does have merit in terms of football and men's basketball. More importantly, it made sense from a financial standpoint.

Slive has added the following TV markets (by national rank*):

#5 Dallas/Ft. Worth
#10 Houston
#21 St. Louis
#31 Kansas City
#37 San Antonio

Said differently...the SEC added 31 million more potential viewers in the states of Texas and Missouri...or almost 10 percent of the US population.

From a TV standpoint, it should be a win. The rumored move from eight conference games across 12 teams to 9 games across 14 teams means a 31% increase in quality SEC conference games for the league's TV partners.

The additional TV sets should mean a massive renegotiation for the SEC and it's TV friends. How much more?

The SEC's current TV deal pays the league $200 million per team. The Pac 12 deal pays $250 million per year to its members. It's not an apples to apples comparison as schools like UGA and UF have side deals for multimedia rights that pay millions per year above and beyond the TV deal. However, the Pac 12 deal is a good starting point for looking at financial opportunity for the SEC in expansion.

With the increase in game inventory and TV sets, it's not unreasonable to think the SEC can get to $300 million per year (a 29% spike in revenues).

With equal revenue sharing, the SEC's deal needs to at least jump from $200 million to $233.3 million just to break even given that we're going from splitting the pie 12 ways to 14 ways.

All of this distrupution wouldn't have made sense if all we were going to do was tread water financially. Slive needs to come back with something in the neighborhood of a 30% bump in TV revenue per school to have made this worth the effort.

So...how do we grade Slive? We'll have to see the new TV deal before we pass judgement.

PWD


TV Info Source: StationIndex.com

Missouri is Looking for Summer Air Conditioning

Raise your hand if you know what I'm talking about?

In the days before luxury student living, there was just student living and less.  Many, many places didn't have air conditioning, especially the older houses in the pre-5peoplelivinginonehousewillmaketheneighborhoodgotohellandcauseprostitutionandmeth days of Athens.  As a result, it wasn't an uncommon occurrence for people to find a summer hookup with AC. 

Now, Mizzu is looking at the SEC for air conditioning.  You know, just until the the B1G comes calling.  The folks in Columbia really wants to play in the smart, but slow, conference.


For the school that is literally holding two conferences' direction in their hands, they have some very interesting PR approaches. Looks like Deaton, et al., are forgetting the SEC isn't run by Dan Beebe.

TD

Fun with Conference Expansion

Since I have been so right in the ballpark written about conference expansion, I thought I'd throw my idea out for a 13 team football schedule.  For better and more well thought out ideas, check out Mr. SECs plan (short version: use the MAC's current 13 team scheduling as a guide) and Team Speed Kills' plan (short version: use the MAC's current 13 team scheduling as a guide, but since it is for one year, throw South Carolina and Tennessee under the bus by sending them to College Station because they suck at recruiting Texas).  In all honesty, the MAC was my first thought, too.

I believe the SEC will add another team in enough time to get a full 14 teams scheduled for 2012.  We've given our thoughts on who that team might be, but, hell, I'm way more wrong than I am am right.  Given that, we've got to consider the possibility the SEC will have 13 teams for at least one season.

So, if the SEC doesn't expand before 2012, what will the schedule look like?  The simple solution is copy the MAC.  I won't rehash the scenarios competently laid out in Mr. SEC's or Team Speed Kills' articles linked above, but the gist is the East side of the schedule will be exactly the same, except for the two East v West games that will have to be lost somewhere to get the West side enough slots for games.  Four West teams will play five division games, three will play six. The kicker is only division games count for winning the division, at least if you go strictly by the MAC plan.

Where does that leave us? It is simple, to me.  Make Texas A&M quasi-independent in football for one year.  They play an eight game conference schedule, without regard to division.  Put the eleven schools that aren't already playing them (Arkansas has them scheduled) in a hat, and draw.  They won't be eligible for the SEC championship game.  Their results don't count in conference standings.  As a carrot, they are eligible for the SEC's BCS slot if they are ranked higher in the final BCS standings than the conference champion.  In a strange way, they could enhance their BCS national championship or at large chances by avoiding the SECCG.

Imagine playing Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, and South Carolina, with games in Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Athens and Gainesville.  You go undefeated against that schedule, it'll be hard nearly impossible to get left out of the BCS championship game.

TD

Mid Week Thoughts

We find ourselves at the beginning of a four game SEC binge that will end with the open date on October 22nd, the week before the Georgia-Florida game.  Three of the games are on the road, including this weekend's tilt at Ole Miss.  Fortunately, there are only snippets of stuff to talk about.  Unfortunately, there are only snippets of things to talk about.

• Injuries...or not.  Who cares?  Someone is unavailable, someone is unavailable.  I didn't get the bruhaha about Rambo in the Boise State game.  I don't get the bruhaha about Tyson against Coastal.  If I am Coach Richt, I call Bill Belichick for pointers on how to handle this, if for no other reason than to gig the mainstream media a bit more.
• SEC Expansion...or not.  Hahaha, guys.  You got me. So it isn't Mizzu or WVU.  Oklahoma isn't going to the Pac-1X. Hey, wait a minu...nah.  Not buying it.
• Mason to get playing time...or not.  Ok, now it is getting serious.  Hey, if Mason is a better option than Murray, then fine.  Play the kid. If Murray is the better option, there is plenty of stuff for Murray to work on that only playing will help.  Ask South Carolina how the 'you're my guy, wait this other guy might be more my guy' thing is going.
• Nutt will get fired after this week...or not.  If Georgia administers a Vandy style beating on them (did I just type that?), it could happen.  I still say it comes during their off week after they go to Fresno.
• Vandy is fo'real...or not.  This week at South Carolina will tell us a lot about that.  Of course, if Garcia throws five ints against them, not only will Spurrier pull Garcia's arm off and beat him with it, Vandy wins.
• LSU takes a big step forward this week...or not. Crazy haha vs. Just Crazy, in the coaching department.  You figure out which one is Holgorsen and which one is Lesticles. 

What did I miss?
TD

Birmingham and KC Papers Reporting Missouri to be 14th SEC Member

At this point, who knows.  Birmingham papers are reporting Auburn would move East.  PWD, whom I expect to post on this, discussed this scenario today.  He has some interesting thoughts on what would happen if that is the case, among them who our 'natural' West rival would become.

Suffice it to say this is a fluid situation, one that could change many, many more times.  Honestly, I like Missouri more than the WVU thing. Columbia isn't the worse town in the world.  The area is called Little Dixie.  The academics are much better than West Virginia's (for those that care).

TD

Conference Expansion Update, Part Q

I have no idea where we are in this thing, so I guessed...

Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC. Great move for hoops. Meh for football.  I guess both fit the footprint about as much as Boston does.  It does make it less likely that UNC, Duke, or NC State jump, since this has the feel of an under the table ask and ye shall receive deal.  Swafford is either working to hedge because another ACC team (or two) is about to jump or has decided being the first poacher is best for keeping that from happening.

Quick thoughts:

• It sure feels like TCU might go looking for another place to go.  If the Big East loses their BCS spot, the Big East is the WAC East, but with far less entertaining football.  Call it the EAC.  Nothing pretty for TCU to play for.  Not that this season is helping them.  It does give them reason to start talking with Kansas, KState, Houston, Missouri, Iowa State, SMU and Baylor to try to save the Big 12 10 9ish.
• If the Big East dissolves, does Notre Dame shop for another Hoops deal?  Not to say the Big East would die as a Hoops conference, but it sure would look different if any more of the football schools leave.
• Would Notre Dame join a conference?  Does anyone but NBC and 5 million Catholics in Chicago care?
• Does this open the door for WVU to the SEC or Big 10? If you think getting to Fayetteville is tough, you are going to love getting to Morgantown.  But they do sell beer at the stadium.
• When do Texas and the Oklahoma schools move? Yes, there has been talk and authorizations, but nothing will come from them until they have a dancing partner booked in ink.  If those three schools, and to a lesser extent, Texas Tech, say they are in a holding pattern, what happens?
• Any chance Texas A&M end up anywhere but the SEC? I'm not going to try to guess what happens in the SEC, since my little brain can't get around the possibilities, but this is one that is going to happen.  Right? Anyone?

Outside of convincing Texas and the Oklahoma schools to join the SEC, does anything about this excite you? Does that excite you?  Honestly, it is hard for me to say.

TD

Conference Expansion Update

The scene above pretty much captures the current climate in college football. Jim Delandy is Josey Wales and Mike Slive is the Chief Lone Watie. The problem is Larry Scott, DeLoss Dodd and John Swofford are all under the misconception that they can win this gun fight.

Delany fired first last year, and Slive fired second. Now, we're waiting.

Lone Watie: "How did you know which one was goin' to shoot first?"

Josey Wales: Well, that one in the center: he had a flap holster and he was in no itchin' hurry. And the one second from the left: he had scared eyes, he wasn't gonna do nothin'. But that one on the far left: he had crazy eyes. Figured him to make the first move.

Now we wait and the end game is still for Delany and the Big Ten to smoke out Notre Dame, but that's going to require obliterating the Big 12 and the Big East as we know it today.

So...here's the latest as of yesterday / this morning:

• FSU - The Palm Beach Post is reporting that the Noles have created a committee to evaluate the situation regardless of whether or not they join the SEC or the ACC expands, they want to be ready to draw down. They are the guy with the flap holster in no itching hurry.
  
  
• Oklahoma - They're leaving. No they aren't. Yes, they are. Blah, blah, blah. They are the guy with crazy eyes. The Oklahoma press is already looking at what their schedule would be like in the PAC-SIZETBD.
  
  
• Oklahoma State - They are the guy with with scared eyes. They're going where OU goes and have zero control over their own fate.
  
  
• Missouri - I have to imagine that Arkansas is behind all the Missouri rumors. Arkansas would be so well positioned if we added neighbor/rivals in TAMU and Mizzou. It would open the St. Louis recruiting market for the Hawgs, and fuel ticket sales and contributions to new heights. Still Mizzou wants the B10 invite more than the SEC, but they will take what they can get. Their regents met earlier this week to talk realignment.
  
  
• Texas - The Horns have lots of options, but none are perfect. They can stick in the Big 12 by replacing OU and OkSU with some combination of Louisville, Cincy, Pitt, Houston and Memphis should the Big East collapse. Or they can move to the Pac 12 or Big 10 and relinquish the Longhorn Network. Or they can move to the ACC, keep the Longhorn Network and have zero natural rivalries. Being independent isn't a real option.
  
  
• Kansas - and out in Kansas, they live in a world without gravity or clear thought as the KC Star reports that Notre Dame would be a great addition to the Big 12 as they have a great fan following, but the success on the field of an Iowa State.

Like everyone else, I really don't know what Slive is cooking up for the 14th team. If it were me, I would go balls to the wall for Va Tech. They expand the conference footprint and put everything else in play. Their departure forces the ACC to expand at the expense of the Big 12 or Big East and put the whole board into motion. That type of movement could unlock opportunities for Teams 15 and 16 in the SEC to include FSU, Clemson or even UVA.

The big thing that's becoming apparent to me is that teams are going to be added to leagues 1 or 2 at a time. This means the 15th and 16th members of some of these leagues will be very, very odd bed fellows.

PWD

Thoughts on Conference Expansion

To me, the most fascinating thing about conference expansion is the ripple impact of every move. It's extremely unlikely that Team A can move to Conference X without a corresponding move by Conference Y. So what does the end game look like?



Many pundits have speculated for over a year that we'll end up with four 16-team Super Conferences. That's probably true, but it looks like we'll see an incremental approach to that destination as only Larry Scott in the Pac-12 has put forth a real 16-team plan.



So...what happens when Texas A&M accepts the invitation to become the 13th member of the SEC? Here's my thoughts on the ripple impact...



What if Team 14 is Virginia Tech?

If the Hokies are the 14th team in the SEC, who will the ACC pursue to fill that spot? The best geographic/TV fits which generate the most revenue are Pitt, Syracuse and West Virginia. In fact, if I were the ACC, I would try and replace Virginia Tech with all three schools and jump to 14 teams.



The problem...taking three teams from the Big East virtually eliminates that league's existence. Without a scheduling partner in the form of the Big East, and with the ACC (at 14 teams), Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac 12 all at 9 conference games each, how does Notre Dame still fill out a schedule? Doesn't that finally give Jim Delany the Notre Dame pitch he's always wanted? Then Big Ten will need a 14th team. The Big Ten would go looking for a 14th team before the ACC could lock down Pitt, WVU and Syracuse.



What if Team 14 is Louisville or Missouri?

Then Mike Slive needs to be terminated immediately. Plus , if Louisville is the 14th team, that could be enough to destabilize the Big East enough for Jim Delany to make a move on Rutgers and get Notre Dame in the process. In other words, adding Louisville could end up strengthening the Big Ten. If it's Missouri...who knows.



What if it's really 16 teams with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and someone else?

Look at how difficult it is to get one team to jump. It creates contractual problems, TV partner conflicts and most importantly political problems for the members. I just don't think a 16-team league can happen all at once. It'll take a few seasons to get there.



What about Oklahoma?

The Sooners are in a tough spot. They can't leave Oklahoma State behind for political reasons, and they need to play Texas every year for recruiting purposes. Texas will end up being forced to play Texas A&M by their state legislatures. There's no way Texas is going to play a nine game conference schedule plus Texas A&M and Oklahoma out of conference every year. OU isn't in a good position for leaving Texas' side now that the Aggies are gone.



So who do you think Team 14 will be? What unseen consequence of adding TAMU could be out there?



PWD