Upon Review: LSU

I could spend a whole week writing about the third quarter, but after watching the replay, there were a few things that really jumped out at me:

• Our first string, on whole, is every bit as talented as theirs (this was a recurring theme in the 3 Questions comments). The flip side is they have that talent level on defense in some of the key second string places, particularly on the line.  I think we are getting close, but we aren't there yet.
• Thinking about the above point, the S&C program has paid off. As much as I couldn't tell you what was wrong last year but to say look at them, I can't tell you what is working now, but look at them. For something quantitative, Georgia had 34 non-starters play, including Mason and Bogotay. LSU had 45 and didn't use but one kicker or QB.
• Wow, did LSU ever find a way to neutralize the linebackers in the second half. Particularly on running plays. The first half they used their basic scheme to try and get holes and got stonewalled. In the second, LSU threw a couple of wrinkles in their blocking schemes that had Georgia confused. That was most obvious on the Ford run up the middle immediately after the second long Mathieu return. Ford literally dragged John Jenkins on his back from the line of scrimmage with no one else helping until Ford goes down after 7 yards, presumably from exhaustion. We can debate execution or coaching on our side, but you have to take your hat off to LSU's coaching for that adjustment.
• The second Mathieu return was a thing of beauty. The first was a product of one miss, some questionable no calls, and a good return guy.  The second was as well run punt return as I have seen in a while. Perfect blocking and great vision. If I'm Georgia's special teams coach, I'm showing that...never mind.

Like I said, I could go on. LSU is the best team Georgia has faced since the 90's.  Too much is made of their 'lack' of offense. Their running game is a hidden gem. Yes, they aren't going to flash and dash you like Oregon or use one stud back like South Carolina, but they are strong, they block well and whomever is calling plays is good at getting into the mind of the other team and figuring out what works and making it happen.

TD

In the End

It'll take me a bit to re-watch the game and have any cogent analysis.  Just from my armchair perspective, there are places we have to improve to get to the next level.  Yes, Georgia deserved to be there.  Yes, LSU is all that and a bag of chips.  We stood toe to toe with them. Then they stopped screwing around and decided to get serious.

Last night was like thinking the really hot girl was finally ready to say yes to your advances, only to find out that her abusive 300lbs boyfriend was not only still in the picture, but he was on the way over. And she doesn't know it yet, but she is pregnant by some other dude. And your new car is on fire with your brand new computer in it. And your computer just downloaded a virus that writes your hard drive with chicken porn. 

It was gut wrenching.

Georgia got beaten by a better team last night. I am very proud to call this team my team. For the first time since the Alabama game, LSU's coaches were concerned. Unfortunately for Georgia, that great team did what great teams do when facing a very good opponent that has them on the ropes: figure it out and win.

TD

Delicious

Artwork courtesy of @GovernorofDixie.

TD

Final Thoughts on LSU

Well, I've gotten both sides of my mind clear.  A few other thoughts rolling around in my head:

• Playing disciplined: The Vandy game illustrated what can happen if we don't keep our heads about us. They pulled off a fake punt, got free yards on dumb penalties, and nearly won the game because they got in our kitchen. Under no circumstances can we afford to just give LSU free yardage. We have to worry about making plays instead of looking to blow someone up. If it gets personal, show them up on the field with our play, not with some out of the way late hit or stupid attempt to get in their face. You don't have to 'show them' to get respect, especially if all you have to do is point at the score board post game.
• Getting them to play undisciplined: I don't hold out a ton of hope over this. Even with the chippiness and the level of trash talk Mathieu brings to the game, the swagger is deserved. If...IF... we can do that, they are prone to lapses. Getting 15 free yards and a first down is huge. Getting them out of their game, even more so.
• Special special teams: No Brad Wing rolling across the Outback like Quigley. No Honeybadger returns for TDs. No one hop behind the back laterals on fake FGs. No blocked kicks allowed. Butler and Walsh kicking like the NFL is watching.
• Lesticles and the streak ending: Think about Miles' predilection for doing stuff that makes everyone but the dude that does motorcycle jumps on New Year's Eve gasp. The fake FG against Florida. Throwing to the end zone against Auburn. Telling Michigan no. At some point, his luck has to turn. 

Finally, if the Dawgs do win today, will that make LSU just another mediocre SEC East team?

TD

Georgia and LSU Comparisons

After doing the comparison of Arkansas and Georgia to prove a point, I decided to see how the six common opponents between Georgia and LSU matched up.

Team	LSU Result	UGA Result	LSU Off/Def	UGA Off/Def
Auburn	45-10	45-7	393/248	528/195
Ole Miss	52-3	27-13	458/195	475/183
Florida	41-11	24-20	453/213	354/226
Kentucky	35-7	19-10	348/155	317/165
Tennessee	38-7	20-12	383/239	366/269
Mississippi State	19-6	24-10	361/193	315/213

So, with the exception of Mississippi State, LSU routinely blew out the common opponents. Looking at the yardage, though, it was much more evenly matched:

LSU Offensive Yardage: 399.3
LSU Defensive Yardage: 207.2
LSU Differential: + 192.1

UGA Offensive Yardage: 392.5
UGA Defensive Yardage: 208.5
UGA Differential: +184

The difference? A little of this and a little of that. Some special teams and defensive scores. Some awesome field field position, due to opportunistic defense, as well as strong punt and kick returns. Some facing depleted offenses at the right time, specifically Florida. As for the lower scores for Georgia in those games, certainly you can look at the offensive philosophy when we have a lead.

I don't know if there is anything I can take away from this, other than I think this game, on paper, is much closer to a push than 13.5 points.

What are your thoughts?

TD

More Thoughts on LSU

I got my 'irrational exuberance' out of the way, so here is my irrational depression. We are going to lose to LSU on Saturday.  By. A. Lot.

Ok, I don't actually believe that. I think we can lose to them. By a lot. I just don't think that'll happen unless we give them that chance.. So much has been made of the comparisons between Georgia's 10-2 and Arkansas' 10-2.  Afterall, both teams' losses are to 10+ win teams. The rub is that The Hogs lost by to the number 1 and 2 teams in the nation.  That alone is proof that Georgia isn't in the 'best of the rest' talk with Arkansas.  For what it is worth, it is probably a fair comparison.

I'm concerned about special teams play. We've seen improvement the past couple of weeks, but remains to be seen if those are fixes or a product of the competition faced. If Melvin Ingram is good for a fake punt TD, imagine what Brad Wing can do. Visions of him running freely down the side line yelling 'a dingo ate your baby' while we blindly drop into punt return make me cringe.

I'm deathly concerned about fumbles. LSU could conduct a clinic for the NFL at creating turnovers, especially after the catch. If Georgia has any chance of winning this thing, we can't let any of Murray's completions become 22 yard arm punts on second down. Even if we create our own opportunities (Arkansas had one), we have to keep what we gain. It is hugely huge that we don't fumble during runs into the line of scrimmage.

Finally, how in the world we are going to handle 4 full quarters of smash mouth football. LSU is like Georgia Tech, but with a competent passing game and fewer chop blocks. They are going to run at us, then run some more. Jefferson has two awesome running backs to hand the ball to.  Oh, he can run himself (insert your own from the police joke here). And they can throw a little, too. Jenkins and Geathers and Smith and Tyson (if he can go) are going to be tested. Ware and Hilliard aren't quite Lattimore, but they are very good running backs.

This isn't a moral victory post. It would be awesome to play them tight and make them sweat, because very few people outside of Georgia thinks it can happen.  I'm going to be depressed if we lose Saturday, though. Especially if we just give them the win.

TD

First Thoughts on LSU

We'll see some of this Saturday (Image: Hipple)

Well, it's Thursday. I've avoided putting this in words for long enough:  I think we are going to beat LSU on Saturday.

I know, it looks crazy on paper. It sounds crazier when you say it out loud. Hell, the voices in my head say it is crazy. I still think that is what will happen. Why?

Paul hit on it earlier. We're going to hit that one time. LSU is more talented. LSU is better coached. LSU has played more tough opponents. LSU has more maturity. LSU has more All-(fill in the blank) players. LSU has faced more adversity. But there is one thing LSU hasn't faced since Alabama: A game with impact. For ten weeks, we have played with everything on the line.

Others have gotten into match ups, but the one I keep coming back to is our offensive line versus their defensive line. I think we'll see some new plays, plays designed to keep them honest on the run blitz and plays that will help freeze the LB blitz and hard press rush from Mingo and Montgomery. I think we will be the only SEC team to score more than one offensive TD on them. I think we'll do that by halftime. Long live the no-huddle slow down offense.

Make no mistake about this, though. Murray has to be on his game. He has to take the hits and keep on going. Also, Bobo has to call the game of his life, not be afraid of letting Murray exploit the one place we will be able to (the one on one coverage Mitchell, Bennett, Charles and/or King will be getting), and take whatever they give. I don't think we will win on a fluke, either. I think we win the same way we won several times. We play strong defense, especially against the rush, get just enough points to make them get out of their comfort zone offensively, then basically play keep away for a quarter.

Finally, I'll address the sky is falling voices in my brain later. I know we have to not fumble, not give up a fake punt for a TD, or throw the Honey Badger a ball in the flats. I just feel good, right now, about none of those things happening.

TD

About the LSU game

I really don't know what to say other than:

1. LSU is extremely good.
2. LSU is extremely battle tested.
3. We have a chance.

For my money, this is the best defense we'll have faced since at least the 2003 SEC Title game. You may have to go back to Bama in '92 to find an SEC Defense with this much talent playing at such a high level.

If our offensive line can give Murray and Crowell the daylight to make plays, we have a shot. If not, the 13 point spread will hold up. LSU's quarterbacks can make the negative plays to give us an opening. The offensive line just has to hold up enough to let us walk through that door.

As Coach Brooks said in Miracle, if we had to play them 10 times...they might win 9. Will Saturday be that 1 game? Hopefully.

PWD

Do what?

Shorter Nick Saban: If we played NFL rules, we'd have beaten LSU in overtime because we moved the ball better.

Money quote:

"But if you kick off to them and they get it to the 30 and you can't stop them until they get in field-goal range, you ought to lose," Saban said.

Perhaps the better way to look at that is you can't make those field goals, you ought to lose.
TD

"Jasper was down!"

I only post this to give Dawgnoxious a chance to use one of his favorite lines.

TD
(h/t @ThinkingBulldog)

Mid Week Thoughts

We find ourselves at the beginning of a four game SEC binge that will end with the open date on October 22nd, the week before the Georgia-Florida game.  Three of the games are on the road, including this weekend's tilt at Ole Miss.  Fortunately, there are only snippets of stuff to talk about.  Unfortunately, there are only snippets of things to talk about.

• Injuries...or not.  Who cares?  Someone is unavailable, someone is unavailable.  I didn't get the bruhaha about Rambo in the Boise State game.  I don't get the bruhaha about Tyson against Coastal.  If I am Coach Richt, I call Bill Belichick for pointers on how to handle this, if for no other reason than to gig the mainstream media a bit more.
• SEC Expansion...or not.  Hahaha, guys.  You got me. So it isn't Mizzu or WVU.  Oklahoma isn't going to the Pac-1X. Hey, wait a minu...nah.  Not buying it.
• Mason to get playing time...or not.  Ok, now it is getting serious.  Hey, if Mason is a better option than Murray, then fine.  Play the kid. If Murray is the better option, there is plenty of stuff for Murray to work on that only playing will help.  Ask South Carolina how the 'you're my guy, wait this other guy might be more my guy' thing is going.
• Nutt will get fired after this week...or not.  If Georgia administers a Vandy style beating on them (did I just type that?), it could happen.  I still say it comes during their off week after they go to Fresno.
• Vandy is fo'real...or not.  This week at South Carolina will tell us a lot about that.  Of course, if Garcia throws five ints against them, not only will Spurrier pull Garcia's arm off and beat him with it, Vandy wins.
• LSU takes a big step forward this week...or not. Crazy haha vs. Just Crazy, in the coaching department.  You figure out which one is Holgorsen and which one is Lesticles. 

What did I miss?
TD

It's Les Miles' World...

We just live in it. This is hilarious. (ht - Blutarsky)



I love that the LSU athletic department put this together for him.

PWD

One Prerequisite Is Fulfilled

Have you ever heard that UF has a really good record lately against Georgia?  Usually, it's the ONLY thing the national media discusses in previews of this game in recent years.  As I've said before, we aren't the only team who's struggled against the Gators in the last twenty years.  Despite that, it seems we're the only team that consistently gets the recent series record dangled in our face.

So sure, we've had our issues in Jacksonville.  In every UGA victory in that twenty year span of futility, though, UF came into the game with a loss against LSU (1997, 2004, and 2007).  An LSU victory over the Gators doesn't signify that the Dawgs will win because LSU has beaten UF a few more times in the last twenty years than we have, but we haven't beaten them without LSU doing it first.  At least that one tiny omen favors us.

Quinton

Thrown to the Tigers

The baseball team lost another series last weekend in Starkville, but they at least pulled out their first SEC win of the season last Saturday. Justin Grimm turned in a good performance on the hill and got the win.  Kyle Farmer returned to starting lineup giving us the middle infield we expected coming into the year.  The Dawgs had a 10-2 lead in the 8th Sunday, but the bullpen gave up nine in the final six MSU outs.  That 10-2 lead turned into a 11-10 loss.  The Sunday game reminded me of some games last year where our talent in the pen couldn't translate into outs.  It resulted in some nightmare innings that cost us some easy wins.  State is likely the worst team in the SEC West, but at least we got a win on the road.

No one will be mistaking State for this weekend's opponent, defending national champion LSU.  The Tigers have returned to the nation's baseball elite and are currently ranked in the top 5 of every poll.  Perno has moved Grimm to Friday night, which I think is a good move.  Tonight, he'll face tall, lanky strikeout machine, Anthony Ranaudo, a sure first round pick in the upcoming MLB draft with a 90+ MPH fastball and a nasty curve.  Ranaudo was injured early in the year with a shoulder ailment.  He returned last weekend in Knoxville and pitched two perfect innings.  I'd expect him to pitch more innings in tonight's start.  LSU also has one of the best hitting lineups in college baseball.  Grimm has to pitch well tonight for us to have a chance at a single win in Baton Rouge. One win this weekend would be a big step forward for this team.

Tonight's game will be televised on ESPNU at 8:30 EST.

Quinton

UGA's defensive coordinator search

Given how close to the vest Coach Richt is playing this, his search could center on anyone, and we'd struggle to know it. However, the rumors about the search now clearly center on John Chavis.

Chris Low from ESPN.com has a lengthy piece about Richt's potential interest in Chavis. Dean Legge of DawgPost.com follows that piece (Premium) up with additional information which suggests that Chavis looks to be the front runner. Despite his comments to his players that he was staying. Miles says UGA is interested, but he hasn't spoken to Richt.

I would personally be excited with a Chavis hire. Consider some stats:

	UT '08 with John Chavis	UT '09 with Monte Kiffin
Scoring Defense	16.75	21
Total Defense	263.5	308.83
Rush Defense	103.08	142.92
Pass Defense	160.42	165.92
Sacks / game	1.92	1.67
Interceptions (Season)	17	9
3rd Down Conversions*	37.1	34.12

	LSU '08 w/o Chavis	LSU '09 with Chavis
Scoring Defense	24.15	16
Total Defense	325.54	326.58
Rush Defense	110.15	142.92
Pass Defense	215.38	192.42
Sacks / game	2.15	1.67
Interceptions (Season)	8	13
3rd Down Conversions	31.15	36.76

Overall, the stats above aren't an attempt to say that John Chavis is better or worse than Monte Kiffin. However, it does provide some context for what Chavis did his last year in Knoxville vs. what Old Man Kiffin did this year in a season that brought him widespread acclaim.

Particularly of note, you'll hear UT fans say that their defense is more aggressive under Monte. Maybe, but the sacks, interceptions, points allowed and yards allowed certainly don't reflect that aggression this year.

It's also interesting to see what Chavis did with the LSU defense from '08 to '09. If we could get that sort of directional improvement, we would be in terrific shape.

The downside of Chavis is the "Third and Chavis" situation. Vol fans will tell you his defenses were historically bad on third downs. The stats don't show a man who is a lock down guy on 3rd down that's for sure. The '06 and '07 UT units were particularly bad in this area, but then again...the '07 UT defense was bad at everything. It's a legit concern.

However, one thing isn't a concern and that's points allowed. Since 1998, only one John Chavis coached defense has allowed more than 20 points per game. That's very, very strong. As a point of comparison, Georgia's defense the past three seasons allowed 25.9 ('09), 24.5 ('08) and 20.1 ('07) points per game. When you get below 20 points per game, good things start to happen, and Chief Chavis keeps the scoring numbers low.

Over the past week or so, two people we usually get great info from have said they would put their money on Chavis. but it isn't a done deal yet. Also, it's interesting that Rodney Garner told Reshad Jones to keep an open mind about the new DC. If we could bring in someone that would feature him like UT features Eric Berry, he should stay. It's a pretty easy sell to Jones that Chavis knows how to showcase Eric Berry. Especially considering that Berry had 3 sacks and 12 interceptions while playing for Chavis (2 years), but 0 sacks and only 2 interceptions playing for Kiffin for one year.

I'm not saying. I'm just saying.

PWD

Ah-hem, Not to Spoil the Pity Party, But ...

The bad celebration penalty didn't cost us the game.  Here's what did: one first down in the first half, no threat of a running game, a missed field goal, terrible kick coverage, and missed tackles.  LSU got kicked in the balls with 1:09 left in the fourth.  They scored a touchdown in twenty seconds.  We then got kicked in the balls with :49 left and threw a pick.  LSU got it done.  We didn't.  The refs afforded both teams opportunities.

If you want to blame Willie, fine.  Just remember that Rennie Curran, our best tackler, had Charles Scott at the line of scrimmage and couldn't close the deal.  He was in position to make the stop and didn't.  Don't blame Willie.  Blame Rennie, who absolutely played his ass off, set a career high with 16 tackles, and is our best defensive player.   Sometimes, the other guy makes a play.

Quinton

AJ Green "Celebration" another camera angle

Unbelievable. Uploaded by DrewinSC. I'm more sick about the play after watching this than I was before. What a screw job.

PWD

Excessive Celebration - Brando's Rant

Move to the 4:45 second mark to hear Tim Brando discuss the call at the end of the LSU game (ht - Catfish and Cornbread). If you can't access YouTube via work, here's a transcription of the conversation that Steve Patterson of UGASports.com put together.

“The rule absolutely has to be abolished. Not changed. Just get rid of it...

...There are more of these called in the Southeastern Conference than any other league in America, and I am going to tell you because it is up to the discretion and judgment of the official that I think now that the politics of the community...of the area are going to be called into question. You don’t want this to happen, because if we take this conversation where we could, it is not going to bode well for the Southeastern Conference.

So first and foremost in the off season they've got to abolish it.

“Rogers Redding, who is in charge of the SEC officials, had better tell his officials 'you had better cease and desist on calling them so quickly.”

“They don't want us to go more in-depth on why the SEC is throwing more. I am telling you, it is a conversation, I don’t want to have it, my friend Spencer does not want to have it, and I am telling you, watch out, because people are going to take a closer look at this and it is not going to bode well for the league.”

What Brando appears to be talking about there is the issue of race. Tim Tebow has never been flagged by an SEC official for celebration; yet, Tebow dances around like an idiot after every two yard run both drawing attention to himself and pandering to the crowd. When LSU scored their first touchdown their offensive linemen were gesturing to the UGA student section and acting wildly on the field celebrating their TD without flag.

Am I saying the issue really is race? I believe that Caucasian players rarely get flagged in the SEC no matter how excited they get. I've never seen it. Have you? So is Brando right? Or is it simply a situation where UGA is still being punished for the 2007 Celebration in Jacksonville? Either way, I don't care. Enough is enough.

Living Under an Oppressive Regime
I'm generally not a conspiracy theorist. But Georgia does live under an oppressive officiating regime. The current SEC Supervisor of Officials is Rogers Redding (Georgia Tech class of 1965). The prior Supervisor of Officials was Bobby Gaston (Georgia Tech class of 1948). The Chief of Officials for Saturday's game vs. LSU was Marc Curles (Georgia Tech graduate). (Ht - HacksawDawg). And for good measure, the play by play man was Al Ford who wrongly announced that Jasper fumbled.

Let me just ask you this....would Kentucky ever allow the head of SEC basketball officials to be from Louisville? Obviously not. Yet, we've had a Tech man running the show for the SEC since 1988. 21 years is enough. Is there not a competent official from Iowa, Texas or hell...American Samoa.

PWD


(BTW -- It is outrageously inappropriate to email Curles at his place of business about his performance as a ref. If you have an issue with the officiating, you should contact Mike Slive via letter or email.)

Is LSU ideally suited for this UGA team?

Richt's teams generally perform their best when they are out of the spotlight or dismissed as incapable of greatness. However, give them accolades and throw roses at their feet and the wheels can fall off.

Sure, UGA is favored on Saturday, but LSU is still the #4 team in the nation. And the general feeling is that Georgia is completely off the national radar. That's a good thing for the Dawgs. They need to get pissed off. They need to feel disrespected. They need to get mean.

If UGA stops turning the ball over, it could start mauling opponents offensively. On the flip side of that equation, if LSU's Charles Scott gets going and the anemic LSU rushing attack gets rolling, they could justify their lofty ranking.

NOLA.com put up a story last night about the offensive problems of the Tigers. It's a good read. Here's the stats from NCAA.com to consider:

LSU's Offense:

Category	National Rank	Actual	Conf Rank
Rushing Offense	74	130.25	10
Passing Offense	90	179.75	7
Total Offense	105	310.00	12

UGA's Defense:

Category	National Rank	Actual	Conf Rank
Rushing Defense	42	112.75	6
Total Defense	67	355.75	11
Scoring Defense	95	29.75	11
Pass Defense	90	243.00	11

You know those games where someone says "it's strength on strength." This ain't that. This is weakness on weakness.

PWD

I Smell Corn Dogs

Cajuns are sensitive about smelling like corn dogs, so pick that scab at every opportunity Saturday. Aiiieeeeee!

Birth of the meme.