9 Game Schedules in the SEC: Baby and the Bathwater?

I realize I am treading into Blutarsky's territory by quoting Michael Elkon, but Elkon hit on something this morning at Braves and Birds that I have been thinking about for nearly a year:

I seriously wonder about Georgia fans who would normally pay thousands of dollars for season tickets looking at their athletic director and saying “you sacrificed the Auburn game, which is often the best game on the home schedule, in order to preserve a glorified scrimmage.  Screw you, I’ll buy tickets to the games that I really want to attend on Stubhub.” 

Greg McGarity and his colleagues shouldn't be in panic mode yet, but it does beg the point: if the TV money comes in big early, do the ADs really care if the stadiums aren't full for the Noon kickoffs against Troy?

Putting aside the Hartman contributions required to get to the purchase threshold (and assuming the student tickets net the same price as the other tickets), there is around $3.25M in ticket revenue from the regular tickets for a game in Sanford. Will the drop off in ticket sales be enough to matter?

For schools like Georgia, read: any SEC school that collects a substantial amount of money as 'buy in' to be able to purchase tickets, that is where the ADs have to worry. For a number of years, the ebb and flow of Hartman money has been dictated by the quality of the team Georgia has fielded in the immediately preceding years. Signs are pointing to a phase were that the ebb and flow will be based as much on what teams are playing  in Athens as anything. If the home slate is Georgia State, FAU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, do you get excited enough to bump your contribution to ensure you get tickets? If the TV money is good enough, do the ADs care?

The one thing Elkon isn't figuring in is the intrinsic, and subjective, value of contributing to the Hartman Funds of the conference (belonging to an 'exclusive' group, helping the student athletes at a place you love, tax shelters) and being able to sit in the same place year in and year out.  What he likely figures, though, is the same people I complained about yesterday, the students, are next year's new Hartman Fund donors. If they aren't excited about seeing a noon kickoffs against a slate of Coastal Carolinas now, why would they be when the tickets are more expensive to come by?

I'm not talking about just Georgia/Auburn and Alabama/Tennessee. The LSU/Florida game and the Arkansas/South Carolina games have been very big draws for those fan bases, something I would expect of the Texas A&M/Missouri game. Same could be said for the value of the match up for television.

Paul mentioned it the other day, and I think he's right. Follow the money. What we see as throwing the baby out with the bathwater, Slive and the ADs see as simply cleaning the wash tub out to hold more money. In the end, if the money is right, the stadium is merely a prop for the show happening on the field. The NFL learned that a long time ago (think the 70's when nearly half of all games were blacked out in home markets, but the national product was sold and broadcast to great success). No one really cares that the Steelers/Bengals game is sold out, at least outside of Southern Ohio/Western Pennsylvania, we just want to see Hines Ward and AJ Green play catch, or Ben Roethlisberger prisonshowered sacked.

And to answer Elkon's question, I don't know what it'll mean to ticket sales over the long term, but it probably won't matter either way.

TD

SEC!SEC!SEC!

Send me some of that cas$ Nicholas. (Image: Hipple)

I'll leave discussion of parallels between the SECCG and the BCSCG and how things could have gone differently for Georgia to Blutarsky (and believe me, Nick Saban should send the number to his hair guy and part of his bonus check to Mark Richt for Georgia's first half game plan against LSU), but I have to question the LSU fan's thinking that putting Jarrett Lee in would have made things different. I'll buy the argument that he couldn't have done worse, but honestly does putting him in and having him do the same make it acceptable to do so?

I point this out to ask this question: If Lee hasn't supplanted Jefferson before the 3rd quarter of the national championship game, is merely standing on the sideline not facing Alabama's defense the thing that convinces you that he is ready to supplant the guy that has gotten you to that point? If he didn't win the job while he has had the chance to do so, I don't see how merely being available makes him suddenly The Answer.

To put it another way, is there anything about Hutson Mason standing on the sideline not facing SEC defenses that makes you think he should take Aaron Murray's place on the field in Georgia games?

TD

I Guess I have to Root for the SEC in the BCS Championship

I have a confession. I am not an SEC homer. Yeah, I'll root for the random SEC team during an early season OOC game, save for Tennessee, Auburn or Florida. I'd root for the Soviet Union against Florida. Just the way I was raised.

However, during this run of national champions, I have been generally agnostic about SEC teams winning. I'll admit to a bit of pride at being a fan of an SEC team during this time, but nothing good comes from another Alabama or LSU national championship. Right now, the only real thing I am rooting for tonight is a good game. That and the under.

That feels good to get off my chest.
TD

SEC Championship Game Cutoffs Announced

From Georgiadogs.com:

Hartman Fund Contributor Tickets - in an attempt to provide tickets to as many Hartman Fund contributors as possible, the following ticket limits were implemented.
6 tickets: All contributors who ordered with a cumulative score of 100,000 and higher will receive up to 6 tickets.
4 tickets: All contributors who ordered with a cumulative score between 52,500-99,999 will receive up to 4 tickets.
2 tickets: All contributors who ordered with a cumulative score between 12,050-52,499 will receive up to 2 tickets.

They were higher than I would have though.

TD

Georgia the Key to 3 SEC BCS Teams?

Look, I didn't remotely entertain the thought of Georgia playing in the BCS National Championship game in 2007, exclusively because we didn't win the conference.  I felt that view was only consistent with my position in 2006 when Michigan was being shilled in consideration for that same thing.

That being said, Pre-Snap Read has laid out a scenario in which 3 teams can go to the BCS from the same conference.  If you are thinking that would be LSU, Alabama and Arkansas from the SEC, think again.  The short version of the rule is that when 1vs2 game is between two team from the same conference, and neither of those teams won their conference, they the conference champion would still play in the BCS.

Doing the math, that means Georgia winning the SEC, with LSU and Alabama OMG! rematch!@!!!!  I bet Mike Slive has an entire team of scientist working on this, with an entire team backing them up.  Talk about everyone wanting to blow up the BCS. If two SEC teams that didn't even win the conference (and one of them losing to anyone from the *lowly* SEC East) play for the National Championship, Dan Wetzel will have a stroke. Jim Delaney will pretend it is due to the kind of athletes we have here, but secretly covet Slive's genius.

Here's hoping Georgia can create that kind of chaos.
TD

"Jasper was down!"

I only post this to give Dawgnoxious a chance to use one of his favorite lines.

TD
(h/t @ThinkingBulldog)

Fan's Guide to Missouri

A few quick thoughts about the University of Missouri:

• It is located in Columbia, making the SEC the only major conference with colleges located in the exactly named towns (without being in the same town).
• Columbia is similar to several other college towns in the SEC (Ttown, Athens, and Oxford), but has a grittier vibe to it.  The campus abuts the downtown area, which has plenty of bar/restaurant/head shop/clothing store type places around. 
• The quintessential hangout is Shakespeare's Pizza. It is located across the street from campus, approximately where the Espresso Royale Caffe is in Athens in relation to Georgia's campus.  
• The pizza is good, but nothing to move North over.
• Their football stadium is called Faurot Field.  It seats a shade over 71K, making it the 9th largest in the conference after the addition of A&M and Mizzou. It was the fourth largest in the Big 12, just behind A&M's Kyle Field.  It is called 'The Zou' by the Tiger fans.
• Thier basketball facility is called Mizzou Arena.  It seats 15K.  It'll be the 5th largest venue in the SEC.
• Their sworn enemy is Kansas.  Something to do with the Civil War. Unlike the folks at Texas, who threw their suckers in the dirt over Texas A&M leaving the Big 12, it is expected Missouri and Kansas will still play each other in football and basketball.
• Missouri is the oldest public institution of higher education west of the Mississippi.  That is a distinction I expect the University of North Carolina to find a way to horn in on.
• They have a strong music scene, unless you are from Athens or Austin.  Then it is just a cute music scene.

The easist way to get there is to fly to St. Louis, which is 110 miles east of Columbia. The drive from St. Louis to Columbia is easy, but not scenic, unless you are into interstate porn shops, housetrailer churches and cigarette outlets.  Then it is your bag.

TD

Fun with Conference Expansion

Since I have been so right in the ballpark written about conference expansion, I thought I'd throw my idea out for a 13 team football schedule.  For better and more well thought out ideas, check out Mr. SECs plan (short version: use the MAC's current 13 team scheduling as a guide) and Team Speed Kills' plan (short version: use the MAC's current 13 team scheduling as a guide, but since it is for one year, throw South Carolina and Tennessee under the bus by sending them to College Station because they suck at recruiting Texas).  In all honesty, the MAC was my first thought, too.

I believe the SEC will add another team in enough time to get a full 14 teams scheduled for 2012.  We've given our thoughts on who that team might be, but, hell, I'm way more wrong than I am am right.  Given that, we've got to consider the possibility the SEC will have 13 teams for at least one season.

So, if the SEC doesn't expand before 2012, what will the schedule look like?  The simple solution is copy the MAC.  I won't rehash the scenarios competently laid out in Mr. SEC's or Team Speed Kills' articles linked above, but the gist is the East side of the schedule will be exactly the same, except for the two East v West games that will have to be lost somewhere to get the West side enough slots for games.  Four West teams will play five division games, three will play six. The kicker is only division games count for winning the division, at least if you go strictly by the MAC plan.

Where does that leave us? It is simple, to me.  Make Texas A&M quasi-independent in football for one year.  They play an eight game conference schedule, without regard to division.  Put the eleven schools that aren't already playing them (Arkansas has them scheduled) in a hat, and draw.  They won't be eligible for the SEC championship game.  Their results don't count in conference standings.  As a carrot, they are eligible for the SEC's BCS slot if they are ranked higher in the final BCS standings than the conference champion.  In a strange way, they could enhance their BCS national championship or at large chances by avoiding the SECCG.

Imagine playing Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, and South Carolina, with games in Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Athens and Gainesville.  You go undefeated against that schedule, it'll be hard nearly impossible to get left out of the BCS championship game.

TD

SEC Quarter Season Review

A quick look at each team and how their seasons are going.

West
Alabama - Yawn. Alabama keeps winning with defense and a nine fingered sock puppet as QB.  This team is what Spurrier wishes South Carolina could be: Strong running game coupled with safe QB play and a stout defense.
Arkansas - Rolling up the offense, but sure did make Troy's offense look good.  The only bonus for them is that the two better teams in the division are defensive minded teams.
Auburn - I'll take bags of poo on fire for $1000, Alex.  A: Auburn's Defense
LSU - By arresting victory, we set in motion bales of time that eventually results in a continuum of lack of losses.  Douglas Adams said that.
Mississippi - David Cutcliffe quietly pushes another pin into his Pete Boone voodoo doll.  All the grass on The Grove dies.  Alumni take ad demanding firing of Rebel Bear.
Mississippi State - That winning thing is harder than it looks when you don't have but one option on offense.
LSU and Alabama are still the teams to beat in the West.  And the conference.  And the nation.  Go ahead and write down November 5 at 3:30 as the kickoff of the game of the week of the decade this century.  

East
Florida - Looked good against Tennessee.  Back to back games against 'Bama and in Baton Rouge loom.
Georgia - Good news, the Dawgs have faced two of their four toughest games.  Bad news, Dawgs still have to beat Florida to win SEC East.  Ugly news, only 30 teams have more yards rushing on the season than Georgia Tech did against Kansas, and Georgia isn't exactly stopping the run well.
Kentucky - Kentucky is setting offense back 70 years, yet are 2-1.  The world makes no sense to me.
South Carolina - South Carolina will need turnovers to keep winning.  Good running game, coupled with 5 fingered sock puppet senior QB equals someone eventually stopping said running game and crushing the Gamecocks.  More than once.
Tennessee - Losing Justin Hunter just caused this season to go from one of promise to one of 'we hope we don't lose to Vandy.'
Vanderbilt - Vandy won't keep getting turnovers to help them win.  They will go to a bowl this season.
Paul Westerdawg was right calling this a kingdom of blind men.  South Carolina and Florida currently have legs up with wins in the division, but they have brutal conference schedules in front of them.  Georgia is playing better, but you know somewhere, there will be another UCF/Colorado style meltdown that will cause them to lose a game they shouldn't.  Tennessee is young and has shown it consistently; the bonus is they have to play the rest of the season without the Braymaker Justin Hunter.  Vandy is playing very well, but until they face a bit better competition, it is hard to say much about them.


TD

The SEC West

Earlier, I copped out on a review of the SEC East.  Now, I tackle the west....

Predicted order of finish:

1. Alabama, with a bullet.  They are the sexy pick for a reason.  They are returning more people than the English did at Dunkirk.  They have one of the top two running backs in the conference.  They have three of the top ten defensive players in the conference returning.  Plus, beyond LSU, the West looks beatable.


2. LSU.  Yeah, I know they will lose their staring QB.  This is LSU.  OF COURSE, they will.  The Tigers will rely on defense again and hope the offense is enough.  And it will be, for the most part. 


3. Mississippi State. Reif improves, but the Bizzaro Dawgs regress on defense.  State will still have a good season and a bowl game.  Any reason to leave Starkeville for another game is a good season.


4. Arkansas. Before Davis got hurt, I'd probably flip them to 3.  Davis got hurt. 


5. Auburn. I considered moving them above Arkansas.  We'll see just how good Malzahn is this season.


6. Mississippi.  Good news: They will double their SEC win total. Bad news: They only won one.  Hey, at least you don't go to school in Starkeville.

The West is far more clear cut than the East, especially at the top and bottom.  Realistically, you could flop State, Arkansas and Auburn around.  They will likely finish within a game of each other in conference.  The only wild card is Wilson, the new QB for Arkansas.  He'll be asked to do a lot more than he would have been with Davis in the line up.  If he turns out to be ready, really ready, for that challenge, they move to third, probably easily. 
TD

Thoughts on Conference Expansion

To me, the most fascinating thing about conference expansion is the ripple impact of every move. It's extremely unlikely that Team A can move to Conference X without a corresponding move by Conference Y. So what does the end game look like?



Many pundits have speculated for over a year that we'll end up with four 16-team Super Conferences. That's probably true, but it looks like we'll see an incremental approach to that destination as only Larry Scott in the Pac-12 has put forth a real 16-team plan.



So...what happens when Texas A&M accepts the invitation to become the 13th member of the SEC? Here's my thoughts on the ripple impact...



What if Team 14 is Virginia Tech?

If the Hokies are the 14th team in the SEC, who will the ACC pursue to fill that spot? The best geographic/TV fits which generate the most revenue are Pitt, Syracuse and West Virginia. In fact, if I were the ACC, I would try and replace Virginia Tech with all three schools and jump to 14 teams.



The problem...taking three teams from the Big East virtually eliminates that league's existence. Without a scheduling partner in the form of the Big East, and with the ACC (at 14 teams), Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac 12 all at 9 conference games each, how does Notre Dame still fill out a schedule? Doesn't that finally give Jim Delany the Notre Dame pitch he's always wanted? Then Big Ten will need a 14th team. The Big Ten would go looking for a 14th team before the ACC could lock down Pitt, WVU and Syracuse.



What if Team 14 is Louisville or Missouri?

Then Mike Slive needs to be terminated immediately. Plus , if Louisville is the 14th team, that could be enough to destabilize the Big East enough for Jim Delany to make a move on Rutgers and get Notre Dame in the process. In other words, adding Louisville could end up strengthening the Big Ten. If it's Missouri...who knows.



What if it's really 16 teams with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and someone else?

Look at how difficult it is to get one team to jump. It creates contractual problems, TV partner conflicts and most importantly political problems for the members. I just don't think a 16-team league can happen all at once. It'll take a few seasons to get there.



What about Oklahoma?

The Sooners are in a tough spot. They can't leave Oklahoma State behind for political reasons, and they need to play Texas every year for recruiting purposes. Texas will end up being forced to play Texas A&M by their state legislatures. There's no way Texas is going to play a nine game conference schedule plus Texas A&M and Oklahoma out of conference every year. OU isn't in a good position for leaving Texas' side now that the Aggies are gone.



So who do you think Team 14 will be? What unseen consequence of adding TAMU could be out there?



PWD

Following the Money

Do the guys online know more than us?  Check out Bodog's odds on who will win the SEC (h/t @CFTalk):

Bama: 9/5
UF: 9/2
UGA: 5/1
LSU: 5/1
SC: 6/1
Arky: 13/1

Everyone else is at least 18/1.  Bama is a prohibitive favorite to win the West at 10/11.  LSU checks in at 5/2 and Arky at 6/1.  In the East, Florida is a slight favorite over South Carolina at 9/5 to SCs 19/10.  Georgia is right behind them at 2/1.  No other East team is better than 15/2.

More interesting are the player props.  The bettors have Murray and John Brantley both pegged at 60/1 to win the Heisman, but Brantley is fairly far ahead of Aaron when you lay money on most passing yards in the conference.

Fairly fascinating stuff.  I don't regularly bet on football, so understand that this information may seem normal or not fascinating to you if you do.  

Should the SEC poach the ACC?

Is there opportunity here?

Yesterday, I wrote about SEC Expansion and Virginia Tech.  I'll admit it, there are some good reasons for the SEC to look at FSU or Clemson.  Both are well within the current footprint of the conference.  Both have regularly scheduled match ups with current members, plus longstanding rivalries with other members.  Both have strong athletic programs.  Academics?  Well, Clemson is very strong....

However, Slive would have to fight a very tough battle with Georgia and Florida on FSU, Georgia and South Carolina on Clemson.   I'd be unhappy with either.

Then there is Tech. There could be some good reasons for the conference to think about Georgia Tech, but the only one I can come up with is academics.  Georgia has a strong hold on the Atlanta TV market, as does UF, Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee, for that matter.  They don't bring anything new to the table for athletics, other than a cute offense in football (before you flame me, I know they are a pretty good athletic department, and Mossad could learn a thing or two from them about information control).  I guess if you were choosing between South Florida and Tech, Tech is an easy choice, but I'd consider Tech about even with NC State, if NC State were the only choice.

But North Carolina State isn't.

Could the SEC make a move for UNC, Duke and NC State?  It gets them into a two growing large markets.  It brings decent football from two schools.  It bring two top flight academic institutions and when you add the four with Texas A&M, it is a huge academic boost.  It would put the SEC even with the Big East in the national basketball discussion, meaning a renegotiation of the TV package (for comparison sake, the ACC just signed a 12 year, 1.86 billion deal with ESPN, comparable to the SEC's per year deal).  It would cripple the conference of the in-state rivals of three members. 

Imagine at least 5-7 more basketball games and all conference tourney games on national TV. Before you start on UNC would never leave the ACC, did you think Nebraska would leave the Big 12?  Given a choice between being a possible non-BCS school (especially with the shenanigans at Miami) or moving to a better long term option with the three schools they are most closely tied to, and getting the money that comes with a move to the SEC?  Not a stretch.  NC State would move in a heart beat, too.

Strangely enough, the sticking point might be Duke's faculty living with a move to the unwashed academic masses of the SEC. Currently, the median USNews ranking in the ACC is 34.5, with FSU's 111 taking up the rear. The SEC's median is in the high 90s, with unranked Ole Miss and Mississippi State bringing up the rear.  That isn't an insubstantial consideration for Duke's faculty and academic reputation.

Hey, I grant North Carolina has their own issues with the NCAA, something that would be the source of multiple jokes if they come to the SEC.  I also grant this isn't the football marriage some might be dreaming of.  But again, if the option is TAMU plus FSU/VaTech/Clemson or TAMU plus Duke/UNC/NCState, I am pretty sure I know which one Slive will have the public and private consensus for.

I'd also consider Louisville a nice backup contender if the conference only goes to 14 schools.  Their basketball would help.  The football isn't good again, but they could help push the brand into the Midwest some.  Plus, Kentucky doesn't seem too upset over building a deeper rivalry with someone they can be a bit more competitive with.  However, I think Louisville is one of those ask before we ask Directional Florida to balance the conference deals.

As a final point, I will say that there are significant psychological downsides to taking in three ACC schools.  But if Slive can't convince Texas and the Oklahoma schools to join, these three make the most sense to me to get to 16 members. If it is Va Tech and Louisville, you just about have to get a Texas or Oklahoma with TAMU (which I just don't think will happen without Okie State) to build out to 16.

What if TAMU decides to stay? Can the SEC move on VaTech and the three North Carolina schools and make it work? I don't know.

I guess the real question is will the SEC be the first to make a move to 16 teams.

Who Would the SEC Target from the East?

I am still not convinced the SEC will expand...yet.  As I pointed out, this could be a move by TAMU to get Texas and the Big 12 a bit closer to even.  Not saying it will work, but it could be going down like this.  Also, the SEC won't likely move without a very good idea about who will balance the conference, and a better idea if it'll be 14 or 16 now.  And when 16 will happen.

The last time Mike Slive did something that wasn't planned to the barest detail, he was born a day early, although he did that on purpose.  As PWD put it to me, the conference presidents are strategic people.  They won't just jump on Texas A&M just because they can.  There are only three programs out there that I see as legit Napoleon Battle Plan types (show up and see what happens, making it worth moving to 13 schools without a 14th): Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma. 

So, we've all debated the merits of pursuing Texas, TAMU, Oklahoma, and Okie State. Notre Dame ain't coming. What if Slive and the Presidents are looking East?

If TAMU wants to come, great.  I don't think Slive will ask until the SEC has a very good idea who the 14 (and possibly 15 and 16 will be).  Slive knows the first dude in line has to load up the plate or some of the tastier morsels will be gone from the buffet.  The SEC can't/won't chance just getting TAMU and hoping to add a solid 14th, then get stuck with A) some random school that doesn't fit strategically, or B) Slive being forced to jam an in-state competitor school down a current member's throat.  Before you get all "adding FSU hurts Florida, which is good for Georgia," remember FSU hurts Georgia in recruiting plenty.  Same goes for Clemson.

So that leaves us with Virginia Tech, right?  Not a bad pick: strong academics, to satisfy those that would worry about such things; good athletics, to help with the product that brings the money in.  Strong DC area alumni base, getting the conference some access there (although DC is not a college football town; I'd equate it with Philadelphia in that it is much more a pro-football, college basketball town).  There is the pesky issue of UVa, as the Virginia Legislature might block a move without knowing what would happen to UVa's interests, but that isn't insurmountable like it would be in a state that cares a lot more about things such as that.

But what if the SEC decides it is time to go to 16 schools, and to do it now? How do they go about that? I have a couple of ideas that I'll post about later today.

What are your thoughts: Will the conference just get 13 and see what happens? 14 or 16?  What schools can they target/will they target?

TD

For Further Reading:
- The Search for Number 14 - Team Speed Kills

SEC Presidents send message to TAMU

Having some experience in dealing with high level university administrators, I have graciously decoded the message Dr. Bernie Machen released through the SEC office regarding SEC expansion.  You're welcome.

“The SEC Presidents and Chancellors met today and reaffirmed our satisfaction with the present 12 institutional alignment.  We recognize, however, that future conditions may make it advantageous to expand the number of institutions in the league. We discussed criteria and process associated with expansion.  No action was taken with respect to any institution including Texas A&M.”

Should be read as:

 "The SEC is digging that stuff you are offering.  It is just that too many people are around eyeballing us to see how we are going to conduct ourselves, and we aren't willing to be "that guy."  Believe us, we are "that guy."  We think you should meet us at the Dew Drop Inn by the interstate, Room 17, about midnight, and we'll show you just how much "that guy" we are.  We'll bring some Cold Duck and hit the slot machine in the men's room at the gas station. By the way, if we get asked, we gonna act like we don't know you and tell folks we think you are a bit trashy for our tastes. No offense meant."

TD

SEC Expansion: Bama and AU to the East?

If the SEC expands to include Texas A&M plus another school slotted for the West, I expect Alabama and Auburn to both move to the East.

SEC East:

Alabama

Auburn

Georgia

Florida

Tennessee

South Carolina

Kentucky



SEC West:

LSU

Texas A&M

Arkansas

Miss State

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

TBD

If the league slots FSU or Missouri caliber program in the West, the balance would be reasonable. If they go after Virginia Tech again, then the divisions would basically stay the same as they are now and Bama/AU wouldn't move.



A nine game SEC schedule would likely be a part of a 14 team league. Especially now that the Pac 12 and Big Ten are going in that direction.



What's the benefit to UGA beyond more quality home games? Well...we would get a balanced SEC home/away schedule of 4 home, 4 road and 1 neutral. Today, Georgia has a 4-3-1 SEC schedule on odd numbered years and 3-4-1 on even numbered years. It would actually be easier to keep the Cocktail Party in Athens if the SEC expands to 14 teams and goes to a 9 game league slate.



Imagine a slate like this on an even numbered year:

Home:

UT

Alabama

Arkansas

Kentucky

Georgia Tech



CUSA Team

Div I-AA Team



Away:

Auburn

Texas A&M

South Carolina

Mississippi State



Neutral:

Florida

What's your take?



PWD

Will the Aggies move to the SEC?

Dying or just getting started?

It seems like a good move.  Texas A&M and the rest of the 8 leftovers in the Texas Longhorn conference, are getting a complete rodgering less than advantageous deal.  Don Beebe might have saved the Big 12, but due to the concessions given the Longhorns, it is only a matter of time that several of the other schools will look for a change.

So we are working on the assumption that the change would be a power play by the SEC to get TAMU and another top tier team or three, in all likelihood from either from the Big 12 or the ACC.  Oklahoma or Oklahoma State come to mind.  Georgia Tech, Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech and Miami do, too.  For what it is worth, TCU makes some sense. But is SEC expansion the only thing that makes sense?  As Blutarski put it, I'd be more impressed if Mike Slive were talking about A&M moving to the SEC.  If the SEC does this, it won't be out of charity to TAMU or another team.  It'll be because Slive and the Presidents think it'll be a long term net money win.

Does adding TAMU help expand the TV footprint significantly enough?  I don't know.  The SEC is already on two national networks each week, with nearly every game broadcast regionally. Yes, it gets the SEC into the Texas market.  It would be good for SEC fans in Texas to be able to see the SEC regional games, but what does that do for the conference? Would adding TAMUs football and basketball revenue be a strong enough argument, when added to the expanded TV footprint, to make the move without knowing what other team would be used to balance the conference?

Is it more plausible that the Little 9 of the Big 12 look to balance their conference.  I can see a scenario that they make moves to encourage Texas to go independent, either by figuring out how to get them out of the Big 12 or otherwise.*  Otherwise isn't as good a deal, as any newly formed conference would not be a BCS conference, although it would likely quickly qualify, especially if Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas Tech and Texas A&M are in play.  What if you add TCU to that mix?

The best argument against this happening is that the Big 12 needs Texas more than Texas needs the Big 12. Is that still the case? Texas has made it such that those programs are subservient to the Longhorns.  Is a Big 12 without Texas better off long term for the majority of those schools than with a Texas dominated Big 12?  That might be the question of the day and the source of the TAMU to SEC talk.

If the next best argument for Texas to stay in the Big 12 is that Texas A&M and Oklahoma wouldn't want to give up playing Texas every year, the simple counter to that is that Texas doesn't want to stop playing them, either. The Red River Shootout and the Texas-Texas A&M games are two of the top 10 or 15 rivalry games nationally.  An independent Texas can't afford to give up those games. The Texas legislature probably wouldn't let the Longhorns give up TAMU or Texas Tech (or probably Baylor), anyway.   I'm not sure what the arrangement would be, but I feel pretty good about the leverage those teams might have if Texas chose, or were forced, to leave to be independent.  Furthermore, Texas probably doesn't have the leverage that Notre Dame does, so they might be outside the BCS looking in for a while.  Is it worth being equated with BYU, Army and Navy at BCS time?

Finally, the Longhorn network complicates any move of Texas to another conference. Again, I'm not sure of logistics and finances, but somebody, somewhere will have to convince Texas a move to their conference is a win for them.  No other conference is going to sell out to get Texas the way the Big 12 did to keep them.  What does giving up some of that Longhorn network money, or more fairly sharing conference money, and with more forks in the pie, do to Texas' decision making? 

From a fan's perspective, we seem to love this (FWIW, I'm ambivalent about a 14 or 16 team SEC).  From a business standpoint, if this is a move foreshadowing the true super conferences, it might make sense. If this is just a grab for A&M because we can, does it make sense?  For whatever reason, something isn't adding up with A&M just up and moving.

Am I way off base here?

TD

*I looked at the current Big 12 bylaws.  By my view, a vote of 75% of the board of directors of the conference, by amending the bylaws, vote Texas out of the conference.  I'll grant this is a very quick reading and interpretation of the bylaws.  If anyone knows for certain this is or isn't the case, please let me know in the comments.

SEC Media Days Schedule

KICKOFF 2011 • SEC FOOTBALL MEDIA DAYS

July 20-22

The Wynfrey Hotel • Hoover, Ala.

SCHEDULE OF EVENTS sec(All Times Central)

Wednesday, July 20

11:15 a.m. – 12:45 p.m. -- Luncheon

12:30-6 p.m.

- Commissioner Mike Slive

- Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina

5:30 – 7:30 p.m.

- Reception (sponsored by The Senior Bowl and Wynfrey Hotel)

Thursday, July 21 (8 a.m.-1:30 p.m.)

- Coordinator of Officials Steve Shaw

- Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee

Friday, July 22 (8 a.m. - 1:30 p.m.)

- Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt

Football Season Starts Today

The media is back from vacation, media days are two weeks off, kickoff is in 60 days, and South Carolina fans are already crowning themselves national champions.  Ah, I love July.

A few things to catch you up on what is happening around the SEC...

• Alabama gets in the secondary violation market.
• Arkansas is in the market for a lineman that likes to take care of business.  Guess he is buying into Petrino's 'Its just business' attrition philosophy.
• Auburn has got to be counting the days until they have to give back that pretty trophy.  Toomer's Oaks might live.  Cecil Newton doesn't want to live in the past, either. 
• Florida bloggers are waxing poetic about...Spurrier.  Everyone loves a front runner.
• Kentucky will get the new pro-combat look this season.  Meh.
• LSU's dreams big with Steve Kragthorpe.  Will Brian Brohm also be in Baton Rouge?
• Mississippi State's resurgence in football is being credited to a guy that left after two years for Arizona State.  That will tell you everything you need to know about the state of affairs there before Greg Byrne showed up.
• Meanwhile in Oxford, a list of bold moves that reads like some we'd probably like to see Georgia pull.  I'm depressed now.
• South Carolina has season football tickets to sell.  Really.
• Health Schuler is thinking of leaving Washington again. This should quell any Norv Turner to be Dooley's Ocordinator rumors.
• Vandy has the State Run Media worried a bit.  

I have to admit, besides Tennessee's visit with the NCAA and the fall out from that, this has been an extremely quiet summer.  Compared to past years, especially in Athens, I am ok with that.

TD

Paschall on CBS's SEC Football Schedule

He's been more right than wrong, but the Chattanooga Times Free Press' David Paschall must think post-Cam Auburn is going to be really bad for Tennessee at Arkansas game to get on CBS before Georgia vs. Auburn.  Either that or he thinks ESPN will grab the South's Oldest Rivalry for its prime time tilt that night. I still think we'll be in Sanford at noon on November 12th.

Nothing too surprising here. Other than Georgia/Florida and LSU at Alabama, I don't think there are too many games that greatly interests me.  Well, the Iron Bowl does, but only because it is likely 'Bama won't stop scoring on Auburn until the officials take the football away from them at the end of the game.

TD