The Mountain West could be in excellent shape

Even if the Pac 10 takes Utah on Wednesday as the Seattle Times is reporting, the MWC could still come out of this expansion talk in great shape. Their goal has always been to gain access to a BCS automatic qualifier slot, and adding Boise helps them meet that goal.

I personally think they showed better management than the Big 12 or the Pac 10 during the expansion talk by locking down Boise when they did (I know the Big 12 ended up in a better place financially, but I don't think it was their management that made it happen as much as falling into something created by outside forces). There were scenarios out there where the Big 12 North could've taken the best parts of the MWC, CUSA and WAC to rebuild the former Big 12. But adding Boise so quickly stopped some of that before it started.

Before the Pac 16 talk started, the MWC already was rumored to have a plan in place to pursue Boise, Fresno State and Houston. There's no reason why that plan can't move forward along with a 12th team like Nevada, Tulsa, Rice or SMU.

The last 2009 regular season Coaches Poll included these teams:

#3 TCU
#6 Boise State
#14 BYU
#25 Houston

By comparison, the SEC finished the '09 regular season with three ranked teams in the Coaches Poll. The league still has tremendous work to do in terms of building fan interest, but it has the potential with the expansion above to make significant progress. Plus, there are quality new rivalries in the league with Boise vs. BYU and TCU vs. Houston.

If the MWC takes Boise and Fresno State, it will be very hard for that league to keep its ESPN contract. One of the biggest problems with the MWC is the lack of an ESPN deal. Currently, their games are shown on CBS College Sports and Verses. And the WAC knows its vulnerable.

Also, the Pac 10 may move back to an eight game league schedule from their current nine game schedule once they expand to 12 teams. If so, their members will need to find non-conference opponents to fill the final slate at the same time that the Big 12 is moving to a nine game regular season. And it may not be as simple as the P10 members picking up the old B12 member non-conference games. I think the MWC members are going to end up picking up some nice match-ups from Pac-10 teams. Another potential win for their credibility.

Some changes I expect to see over the coming weeks (beyond the obvious Utah to the Pac 10 discussion):

• MWC Expansion - to include Fresno State and/or Houston at a minimum.
  
• WAC Implosion - This looks unavoidable to me.
  
• La Tech's Advancement - if Louisiana Tech can get into Conference USA to replace Houston, they're going to leap on it. Their program would take a nice step forward with the opportunity to face Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and Tulane regularly as opposed to trips to Moscow, Idaho and Las Cruces, New Mexico.

It's still an interesting time. Even if the next moves don't register quite so loudly on the football richter scale.

PWD

Expansion Wrap Up

Let's say you throw a party for kids in the neighborhood. And let's say that kids who attend the party receive $10 million per year for the next 20 years. While kids that don't attend the party lose $20 million a year for the next 20 years. What do you think will happen?

Of course, parents are going to want their kids there. Not just one kid mind you...but multiple kids. And don't forget cousins, grandchildren and nephews.

That's among the reasons why I said last month, that I didn't see a 16-team league happening.

In the end, I think the Big 10 will expand by 1 team and the Pac 10 will go to 12. And most of the 16 team talk is brilliantly aimed at getting the Big 10 the best possible team to reach out to them for inclusion.

From there, all the leagues will take a deep breath. Because the contractual complexities of moving to 16 teams in one or more conferences are just too great. And University presidents are too risk adverse.

Regardless, Andy Katz's article about the mysterious Trilateral Coalition / Black Hand stopping the Pac 10 expansion is the best read of the entire Bay of Pigskin roller coaster ride.

Two schools who faired better than most think in expansion are:

• Iowa - The Hawkeyes and Huskers have only played six times since World War II, and only twice since Reagan's first term in office. This despite Lincoln being located only 60 miles from the Iowa state line. Right now, Iowa and Nebraska are on comparable footing in football. This is the perfect time for them to become rivals. More than likely, Iowa vs. Nebraska will become the season ending game for both programs, and that's the sort or big time match-up Iowa needs to raise demand for tickets. There's nothing like a heated border war to ignite the fan passion. Also, Iowa State can't sell area recruits on getting to face Nebraska every year. It's another hit to the Cyclones...which is also a win for Iowa.
  
  
• Colorado - They are taking a lot of heat for leaving the Big XII, but it makes total sense to me. When the Buffs were at their best, they were recruiting heavily out of Los Angeles. The rumors are that the Buffs will be in the same division with UCLA and USC which means a yearly game in LA. They are trading in division games against Nebraska and 4 teams that hardly get anyone in that part of the world excited for USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State and likely Utah. That's a towering home run from a ticket sales and fan interest standpoint. TV money is great, but you have to recruit players and sell tickets to win games, and they are better positioned to do that than ever.

What's your overall thought on Expansion? Bottom line for me...I'm glad we ended up where we did at the BCS level, but I don't think we're done at the mid-major level. See next post for more info.

PWD

Texas A&M Considering SEC

It's going to be very tough to pull off, but we're hearing that Texas A&M is receptive to joining the SEC with or without Texas. And the Longhorns, Sooners, Red Raiders and Cowboys are considering the Pac-10 offer with or without Texas A&M.

It'll be very hard for the Aggies to leave without Texas. They would likely need a commitment from Texas that they could still play each every year, but Gene Stallings and the TAMU president are looking at the SEC vs. Pac-10 decision in a very logical manner.

From the standpoint of distance for non-revenue sports and cultural fit, the move to the SEC is a no brainer. From a revenue standpoint, it's no worse than break even given that the Aggies would be able to sign their own TV / electronic rights deal outside of the SEC contract like UGA and Florida have ... both having long term deals worth more than $90 million.

If only the Aggies were added, the SEC would look to the East for the final piece of the puzzle with the most discussed name being Virginia Tech.

In my opinion, a 14 team SEC would move to a nine game conference schedule including a 6-1-2 rotation. All traditional cross divisional rivalries would be kept in place. The only sacrafice the league would be making would be in the area of non-conference scheduling. It would be incredibly difficult for schools like UGA, Florida and South Carolina to schedule non-conference games beyond their non-conference in state rivals and play a nine team SEC slate. But if we were adding Va Tech and Texas A&M to the mix....who cares about playing Oregon.

See Also:
-- The rift in Texas - Sportsline
-- Aggies listening to SEC - Orlando Sentinel
-- Texas has to listen to SEC - Tony Barnhart
-- A&M considering SEC - Sporting News
-- Texas won't hang around - ESPN
-- 16 team conference TV deals not a slam dunk - CNBC

PWD

It's Official: Colorado Joins the Pac 10

The Pac 10 conference announced today that The Colorado Buffaloes are joining their conference. This announcement was made moments ago. (Source: ESPN). This is on top of the likely news within the next 48 hours that Nebraska is joining the Big 10.

According to ESPN (and this was also discussed last night by Pete Thamel of the NYTimes):

Texas and Texas A&M officials are scheduled to meet [today] at an undisclosed location to discuss the future of their athletic programs and the Big 12 amid speculation the league could be raided by rival conferences and broken apart.

Things are moving very quickly. One of the big problems with expanding to 16 teams is...how do you keep fans happy when they are fewer titles to go around? Well, the Pac 10 may have dreamed up a very obnoxious answer to that question (ht - blutarsky):

The coach said it's possible the Pac-16 would push for two automatic bids to the BCS, one for each division champion. That potential bonanza could open the possibility of the two division champs from one league playing for the national title, and it would eliminate the need for a conference championship game.

"The Pac-10 doesn't believe in a championship game," the coach said. "And coaches in the Big 12 don't like it anyway."

If they move in that direction, the Pac 10 is essentially not a single conference at all. It's a modified version of the Pac 8 meets the Southwest Conference in a marriage for TV purposes only.

Imagine the SEC applying this thinking and expanding to 16. You'd have a league whereby the SEC East and SEC West champs both earned a BCS slot automatically, but there would be absolutely no "settling it on the field" in that scenario as the two division champs wouldn't meet in Atlanta. Bizarre.

See Also:
-- Texas A&M and the SEC in talks? - SI.com
-- Scrambling to save the Big XII - NY Times

PWD

Well....so much for a boring off season

The entire college football universe may change more in the next 48 hours than it has at any other compressed period of time in history with a likely end to the Big 12, and the trickle down impacts of that decision. Along with a much shorter term impact, but loud in the near term slapping of Southern Cal.

The latest on USC appears to be 20 lost scholarships, a two year bowl ban, and the optional penalty free release of upperclassmen to transfers. Bama fans still won't be pleased because it's not quite as bad as they got. But then again....the link tying the football staff at Bama to the Means saga was more concrete than the link tying Bush to the USC staff. I expect that much of this initial probation from the NCAA is for show. About a year later, they'll come back and soften the punishment a little.

Here's the big question on USC. Will the scholarship reduction begin immediately, or will it begin after the appeal? Ideally for Southern Cal haters, the penalty will begin after the appeal. Which means, they could damage an additional recruiting class before the sanctions even start while in limbo.

PWD

Why the 16 Team Mega Conferences won't happen Part 1

I just don't see the Big 10 expanding to 16 teams any time soon, and if they don't do it. No one will. In my opinion, most of their talk about 16 teams is aimed at:

• Making Notre Dame Nervous - The only way for a 16 team conference to really work would be moving to a 10 game league schedule. You really wouldn't play the other side of the league often enough to call yourself a conference unless you went to 10 games. Ten league games for the Big 10 would mean extremely little scheduling flexibility for Midwestern teams in booking Notre Dame. Also, a 16 team Big 10 would eliminate the Big East. Currently, Notre Dame is guaranteed 4 games a year against Big East foes. Combine that with three more Big 10 teams, and it becomes hard to see how they would book a full slate of 12 games. There are only so many service academies.
  
  
• Making Nebraska Nervous - If the Big 10 takes Missouri and the Pac 10 takes Colorado, the team left standing in the Big 12's game of musical chairs is Nebraska. Texas and Texas A&M can do pretty much anything they want due to TV demographics and fan support. Nebraska doesn't have that luxury.

In the end, I think the Big 10 will expand by 1 team and the Pac 10 will go to 12. And most of the 16 team talk is brilliantly aimed at getting the Big 10 the best possible team to reach out to them for inclusion.

From there, all the leagues will take a deep breath. Because the contractual complexities of moving to 16 teams in one or more conferences are just too great. And University presidents are too risk adverse.

More on the Revenue side in a little bit.

PWD