The SEC East

Last month, PWD laid out his case for how the SEC East might be won.  In essence, you don't have to be the fastest person in your group to survive a bear attack, you just have to not be the slowest.  Better known as the answer to the rhetorical: "How in the hell did South Carolina win the SEC East?". 

I prefer to look at it like a big election shocker.  Last year, the typical candidates were doing their own thing. Not paying attention to the little things that had gotten them to their elected positions in the first place. A lightly funded, sprightly upstart comes along and bam!  Upheaval.  Despite finishing in the bottom half of the conference in offense and defense, they win the East.

What happens now?  Well, it looks like Georgia and Florida have taken steps to change. I've been watching Florida with my typical condescension and disdain, but Weis is a much better Offensive Coordinator for their current offensive talent than whatever puppet St. Urban had there.  Their defense will probably take a step back due to the number of guys that are gone, but it was pretty solid, so it'll probably still be above average. 

Georgia.  Well, Georgia.  Georgia played one of the least inspired games offensively of the year against South Carolina.  In my opinion, we panicked after finding out we wouldn't have AJ and didn't change the game plan to reflect that.  Georgia's D held South Carolina to their lowest point total of the season.  I'm trending bullish on Georgia's offense and am very confident in the ability of the defense to improve in the key places it needs to, namely big pass play and run shut down.  Can we play with fire and determination?  Remains to be seen.

At this point, the polls are open and turnout can change things.  South Carolina needs a career year from Garcia (and him not getting into any public trouble).  They need Jeffrey to replicate his last season and to stay healthy.  They need the offensive line to be as good as they were to make room for Lattimore and give time to Garcia to find Jeffrey (insert your own joke here).  Their defense has some work to do.  Georgia is young at WR and RB, so how much will having the best TE in the nation mean?  On defense, there are question marks, but 3-4 2.0 will yield dividends.  Florida changed coaches, and schemes.  Will they have enough talent to overcome the change?

I say all of this to say the East is a toss up.  By my reckoning, it might not be decided until Florida goes to Columbia in November. I'm not ready to say Georgia will win the East.  I am certainly not ready to make the forgone conclusion they won't. 

TD
 

Preparations for Boise: Review of Camp

Almost a month ago, I laid out nine things I wanted to see that would make me feel good about the time spent at camp.  So, how'd it go?

• Kwame Gathers pushing John Jenkins for playing time - I'd score this a win.  Not only are they pushing each other, Kwame will start.  Jenkins has been hurt, so that has slowed his progression down, but look for both of them to get on the field together.  A lot. 


• Tackling to the ground - Win.  Guys are getting dinged up, but so far, Richt still has them going live.  Good.


• No discussion about blocking schemes in the backfield - We've had a little chatter about blocking, but instead of talking about how player X is ahead because he is a better blocker, we are hearing how players are pushing each other in different ways. It might be lip service, but at least it is better than flat out acknowledgment that if one player is in, we're probably running a certain type of play.


• More fullback involvement in the offensive scheme - Ah, yeah.  So, we'll just have to see about that Saturday.


• Scuffles on the field - I've heard snippets of guys getting on each other.  It does seem like they are ready to play someone else.


• The freshmen pushing other guys for playing time - Hello Malcolm Mitchell, Amarlo Herrera, Damian Swann, Ray Drew, and Ramik Wilson.  Fortunately, we haven't had to see how much freshmen are ready to play on the line, but it David Andrews will get some reps Saturday.


• Grantham quotes - Well, the back and forth over the bowl game was interesting.  Really, it was just a lot of forth.


• Richt keeping it real - No pool.  Check.  Going to the Dome for practice. Check.  Calling guys out. Check.


• No quotes from Walsh about kickoff schemes - I am still so negatively conditioned, until I see a ball bouncing around at the bottom of the goal post in the Dome, I am worried about it.

It's game week, y'all.  Time to get real.

TD

File Under: Things that Make Paul Westerdawg Happy

This:

8. In all likelihood, the team will not head to the pool at the Ramsey Center this fall camp.
“I doubt we go to Ramsey,” Richt said. “This might be the first time that we’ve gotten all 29 practice opportunities in. We haven’t gotten there yet, but we’re on track.” 

I'm ambivalent about the pool thing, honestly.  We didn't fall off the past few years because of going to the pool.  We fell off because we weren't totally and honestly committed to the single minded pursuit of playing the best football possible, from the AD to the managers, with the goal of humiliation and domination of all teams faced.

Going to the pool isn't the issue.  Going to the pool is a sign.  Not going is a sign, as well.  If this represents a dedication to that single minded pursuit, awesome.

TD

Replacing Veteran Receivers

We know the drill.  Yeah, the QB is coming back, but his top two targets from 2010 are now in the NFL.  Nearly 50% of the catches and over 50% of the yards receiving from last year have to be replaced.  Only two guys with over 300 yards receiving last season are back.  Only two guys returning caught 25+ passes in 2010.   

Not a good thing for a QB to try to over come, especially with a brand new offensive coordinator.

Wait, you thought I meant Aaron Murray? I'm talking about Boise State's Kellen Moore.  For comparison sake, Aaron lost a shade over 40% of the catches and just under 48% of the yards receiving from 2010.  So, is it just assumed that Kellen can, by sheer will, make those new guys play like receivers that are now in the league?

I'll grant Boise's running game has a much more experienced feature back and their offense was 150 ypg better than Georgia's last season.  However, Georgia has continuity on their side (insert your own snark), with Boise State's offensive coordinator being poached as The Answer to Texas' offensive issues.  Brent Pease will replace Bryan Harsin, the best offensive coordinator in Boise State's history. 

More importantly, Moore is losing 41% of his career pass completions and 44% of his career yardage with Titus Young and Austin Pettis' departure. 

I keep hearing how much Georgia lost with AJ Green and Kris Durham's departures.  I agree.  You know what I haven't heard?  How much Titus Young and Austin Pettis' departures hurt Boise State.  Now, there is no doubt Kellen Moore is the real deal.  I am not debating that.  I am saying that Young and Pettis' departures from Boise State mean at least as much to Boise's passing offense as Green and Durham's does to Georgia.  Maybe more.

We find a way to slow down their running game and put Moore in a place of having to force throws at guys he might not trust or having to decide to tuck the ball, it could be a fun night.

TD

Georgia's 2011 Schedule: Reason for Hope?

All of us have looked at 2011 and scratched our heads.  On one hand, the schedule sets up very nicely for the Dawgs to have a season that should be much better than last year's bucket of fail.  On the other, we could start out 0-2 and no number of two touchdown wins will turn some people around.  I can't think of a season since 2000 that I have looked at and thought we could be anywhere from 11-1 to 5-7, and I wouldn't be surprised at any of those outcomes.

I'll get to the Boise State and South Carolina games later.  On paper, we should head into Florida no worse than 5-2.  I know there are those out there that think we'll lose to Mississippi State or Ole Miss, but the Rebel Bears are worse than last season and Mississippi State needed the least inspired performance (until the bowl game) out of a Georgia team since the debacle in Knoxville in 07 to win.  Not to mention, State lost their Dcoordinator, three of their starting linebackers and that monster in the middle of the line that kept Georgia from doing anything on the ground. 

Tennessee legitimately worries me.  That isn't to say I think we'll lose to them, but they have a ton of upside potential.  They also still have a younger squad than Georgia Military.  That and as good (or bad) as Bray might be, he has fewer weapons than Murray.  And he isn't Murray.

So we go into Florida at 5-2.  Putting aside Florida, who on the back end of the schedule worries you?  Auburn?  Kentucky?  I mean this is the SEC, but we could be a legit 9-3, either way. 

I realize this is a very quick whip around the schedule, but it isn't hard to see a world that 9-3 is the very worst we could finish. Would that be enough?  If one of the nine is Boise State, does that change things?  How about Florida? South Carolina?

I don't say this will be dispositive.  I realize we have to show up to win, but the schedule is one that a coach under pressure to put up wins has to love.  Can the renewed...whatever it is...pay off?

TD

ESPN College Gameday Site Projections

I think "guesses" is a better word, but here goes.

Week 1: Oregon vs. LSU
Preseason #3 vs. #4 in a neutral site contest at Jerry World. Biggest no brainer ever. Update: Confirmed.

Week 2: Notre Dame at Michigan
Rumors suggest that Ann Arbor is the target (Now confirmed) . is honoring Desmond Howard and the game is already marked on the ESPN tentative calendar. Personally, I'd send the crew to Happy Valley as PSU (#25) hosts #2 Bama. Both are ABC/ESPN games. Updated: Confirmed.

Week 3: Oklahoma at Florida State
Preseason #1 vs. #5. This is a no brainer. Update: Confirmed.

Week 4: Missouri at Oklahoma
This is wide open. Alabama hosts Arkansas, but that game is a near lock for CBS. I'm going to go with preseason #1 Oklahoma hosting #21 Missouri. Downside to this guess would be the back to back appearances by OU. Also, the lack of an SEC home game to this point makes a trip to Tuscaloosa a strong possibility as well.

Week 5: Nebraska at Wisconsin
Nebraska's first Big 10 game looks like the leading candidate. Bama at Florida would be a solid guess except it looks slated for a CBS primetime slot. I don't see Disney promoting counter programing.

Week 6: Miami at Va Tech (?)
If Cheaty McSweatervest and Pryor were still at Ohio State, I would've said Ohio State's first visit to Nebraska would be the choice here. But this could be UF at LSU, Auburn at Arkansas, Texas vs. Oklahoma, or Miami at Va. Tech. I like the Hokie's here, but it's just a shot in the dark.

Week 7: Oklahoma State at Texas
I could also see Michigan at Michigan State due to weak scheduling both Sparty and UM could both be staring at 1 loss or less entering into this game. Arizona State at Oregon could factor into the mix, but it seems less likely. I'm also doubtful that Auburn at Florida will have much sizzle by Week 7 as both teams could have 2 losses by then.

Week 8: Wisconsin at Michigan State
The slate is really weak for this one. USC at Notre Dame will air on NBC so it's likely out and Oklahoma State vs. Missouri has zero national appeal. Auburn at LSU is another candidate.

Week 9: Stanford at USC
Another less than stellar group to choose from. Texas A&M hosting Missouri will be an intriguing destination for them as well. If UGA makes it through the first two games undefeated, another Cocktail Party visit isn't out of the question.

Week 10: LSU at Alabama
This should be the biggest game of the week. If either team falters, then Arkansas at South Carolina could also be a big deal nationally.

Week 11: TCU at Boise
The best game of the day will could end up being Stanford at Oregon, but I think ESPN is going to want to promote this one instead. Especially if BSU takes down UGA in Week 1. Other big games for the weekend include Miami at Florida State and Nebraska at Penn State.

Week 12: USC at Oregon
Mainly because I think Oregon is getting screwed out of hosting ESPN the week before. Oh..and this week sucks.

Week 13: Alabama at Auburn
Past two national champs going at it in the Sanctions Bowl. Realistically, ESPN could end up at any rivalry game this weekend. FSU at UF, ND at Stanford,


When I look at that slate in all at once, it looks lite on SEC home games. That probably helps Alabama hosting Arkansas in Week 4.

What are your thoughts?

PWD

Heart of the Matter: Georgia's Offensive Line

Need a big year from Cordy (Image:SBNation)

In February, what if I told you Georgia would have more Preseason All-SEC players on the offensive line than any team but Alabama? We know we have 86 starts and combined 113 games across the projected starting line. We have Army All-American Game participants and highly recruited players. In all honesty, I'd have been surprised to hear we had more than anyone but the Tide.

For what it is worth, until the we start play, I view the 'line sucks' talk as a media storyline to discuss the players that have left the program. Yes, it is an area of concern, but if you read most media accounts, Georgia will have two decent returning starters and a bunch of walk-ons playing. When have we had too many non-injured, game tested linemen? Last year? That group didn't exactly set the world on fire, allowing 25 sacks on the season.

Looking at this starting group:

Player	Ht	Weight	Starts	Games
Cordy Glenn	6-5	348	36	39
Ben Jones	6-3	316	35	39
Kenarious Gates	6-5	328	3	10
Chris Burnette	6-2	313	0	0
Justin Anderson	6-5	342	12	25
Orson Charles	6-3	241	16	25

I am not worried about the starters. The only one without game experience might be the smartest player on the team, played in the Army All-American game and was a four star recruit. Sure, we face very tough tests the first two games (and the rest of the SEC schedule, for that matter). But the players with game experience have faced the very best players in the nation during their time in Athens. They'll be fine. Do I worry about injuries? Always. Conditioning, in particular will play an important role here. Bobo and Richt like to rotate in linemen and probably won't be able to do that as much as they like early.   We are stout with our starters, though.

The backups might be green, but by no means are they bad.  All are big kids that will need to adjust to the speed of the game. All are talented.  Several will have to step up and be big contributors early. This will be where the Coach Friend earns his money.

Before you start on the new offensive line coach, the last one we had, who everyone seemed to think was the greatest thing since sliced bread and is part of the solution at Texas, didn't exactly burn it up last year. The play last year seemed to be as much a part of the general lack of giving a damn than lack of ability. That and a continued insistence on calling plays that required a freshman QB to stay in the pocket without options. Searles certainly didn't work the wonders last year that we saw in past seasons.

Play calling will be a big part of the success of this line, as it was part of the lack thereof last year. Plays that give us the opportunity to put another big man on the line, think Lynch or White, and flex Orson out will help. Plays that the give playmakers options in space. Or that put Murray in the backfield with Nick Marshall on one side, Crowell on the other and Branden Smith at slot, just to watch defensive players panic.

The real question in my mind is will the play book adjust to take some pressure off the line, through innovation in rushing plays, a mindset change in passing philosophy, or both. If we do that, the line will be fine.

TD

Practice Starts This Week

As I parse through the "They are really getting after it" and "This is the best camp we've had in two or three years" quotes, here are some of the non-injury related things I'm looking for through the fall practices:

• Kwame Gathers pushing John Jenkins for playing time - If this happens, that only means Kwame and Jenkins will get on the field the same time.  A lot.  It also means Kwame's (and by extension the rest of the defense's) Spring wasn't a mirage.
• Tackling to the ground - I realize there is a balance here, but teams play better after tackling to the ground in practice.  It builds intensity and prepares for game speed.  I hope Coach Richt doesn't lose his nerve.
• No discussion about blocking schemes in the backfield - I get that the tailback has to be able to block in some formations.  I also am smart enough to know that if you don't have a tailback that can do that consistently, you find plays that enable you to move the ball that are not predicated on the tailback having to block.  Find a hole that the peg fits in instead of complaining that you don't have pegs to fit in your holes.
• More fullback involvement in the offensive scheme - A natural extension of the preceding point.
• Scuffles on the field - I'm a bit old school.  Having a kerfuffle or two in camp isn't a bad thing.  Especially if it is the 'get your ass in gear' type of thing.  It also means the coaches are pushing the players and they are ready to hit someone, anyone.
• The freshmen pushing other guys for playing time - Especially at key positions like offensive line, wide receiver, and inside linebacker. 
• Grantham quotes - The guy just cracks me up.
• Richt keeping it real - More being forward about strengths and weaknesses.  Don't give up a practice unless the players are ready for game time. First team practicing against first team. Stuff like that.
• No quotes from Walsh about kickoff schemes - I think we've covered this.

Plenty of him on both sides of the ball would be nice, too (Image: Hipple)

What are you hoping to see?
TD

Mark Richt's Future

(Image: Hipple)
Every so often (about 10 times a day), I get asked my opinion on Mark Richt. There is one thing that is clear about him, not many people are torn about him. You either love him or you don't. I think that puts me in the minority, in that I am glad he is our coach, but sincerely wonder if he can make the changes, changes personally and corporately, necessary to get back to the successes of the early 2000s. I want him to succeed and wildly, but am less than convinced that he can do so again.

First, let me say I want Mark Richt to coach Georgia until he retires, whenever that is. I am proud to call Mark Richt the man My Coach. However, we can't ignore the level of play and how that level has degraded in the past couple of years. I firmly believe Richt has the personal tools at his disposal to bring that level back to what we saw in the early and mid-2000s. He also has the corporate tools at his disposal to do so. I have questions about Richt's ability to employ those tools, based on the past couple of years. Not that he doesn't want to succeed, I believe he does. Does he have the ability to see the issues, whatever they are, and apply those tools as needed? Can he?

Georgia has been close, very close, to remaining in the upper echelon of the the SEC. They are just as close to becoming what they were in the late 90s; a nice surprise pick every once in a while, but never a real threat to play in Atlanta regularly.

Second, I don't like feeling that Georgia has regressed to the level of 1990s play. Upon the hiring of Mark Richt, we made great strides as a program talent wise, coach wise, and fan wise. Regression is the real danger. I don't believe we 'have' to beat this team or that team every year for us to support a particular coach. I do believe we can look back over seasons and see an upward progression, a downward progression or a steady level of play (good or bad). We have been on a downward track.

I enjoy going to Sanford stadium, seeing the Dawgs play and fellowshiping with fellow Dawgs, win or lose. I love showing my kids where I went to college and where their momma and I met. I don't enjoy going to Boulder or Nashville or Starkeville or Columbia or Athens to watch this team play poorly. I don't enjoy looking at stuff like this and thinking about how the Dawgs never got whipped on the goal line or late in games in the early 2000s. I don't like hearing about 'cancers' and seeing a noticeable lack of leadership on the field, especially when the team is playing from behind.

I write all of this to those that say I am not a real fan, that somehow I can't be a fan if I don't unconditionally support the University, Coach, and Players without question forever and ever, amen. Those that hate Mark Richt and want him gone and you that unconditionally support him are all real fans. We all want the same thing: Georgia Success.

If my kids had to go to court for something they did, I'd still love them, but I'd not be happily chi about their actions. They'd still be my kids; I'd still love them unconditionally; I'd still support them anyway I could. I wouldn't act like their actions are irrelevant to me.

Same goes for the Dawgs. I'm not a booer; I'm not calling for anyone's job. I'm pointing out that it is my belief that Georgia has to play better than they have the past couple of years for continued support of the fans that the decision makers in Athens do pay attention to. At this point, it is impossible to say that Georgia has to win X games for Richt to stay around. It is easy to say playing with the same lack of urgency and general lack of concern about outcomes of games will result in that number being moot.

TD

The Curious Case of the SEC East

"In the country of the blind, the one-eyed man is king."
- John Skelton (1522 A.D.)
I've finally come to grips with the fact that right now the Gamecocks are the one-eyed man of the SEC East. In a league full of deeply flawed teams, the chickens shockingly appear as the most complete unit. Although, that hardly makes them world beaters.

Everyone points to Garcia as the biggest weakness for SC. The theory being, he's always one good bender away from spending the night in The Newark of the South Columbia jail. However, history shows that Johnny Fun Time QBs with a penchant for finding the head coach's doghouse have been known to pull it together for their senior years.

See Bobo, Mike. Remember what he was like as a college student before his senior year? In 1996, he was routinely on the fringe of doing something dumb, and always good for a turnover...or 6 if you're in Lexington. The first half of the AU game in '96 Donnan benched him in favor of a one armed walk-on rather than look at him. One year later, he was the model of efficiency.

Granted, Mike never had the arrest recordGarcia had. Not even remotely close, but at some point self interest in one's future can trump one's self destructive tendencies. That's why I'm going to have to pick the Chickens as SEC East champs.

I will say that UGA could win the SEC East, and it wouldn't shock me. But our issues along the offensive line the past few years combined with the intestinal problems (GOOGLE TRANSLATE: Did You Mean "Guts") lead me incapable of picking us #1.

I'm going...

1. SC
2. UGA
3. UF
4. UT
5. UK
6. Vandy

In the spirit of wrapping up my initial metaphor...Let's hope we find our eye balls. Those being the GATA spirit of 2001-2005 and our ability to Finish the Drill. If so, our two eyed team would definitely trump the one eyed man in Columbia.

PWD

Richt's ATL Bulldog Club Recap

Seth Emerson has a recap of Richt's speech at the Atlanta Bulldog Club meeting. He spends quite a bit of time on the running back issues.

Additional, our thoughts and prayers are with Coach Kirk Olividatti (LBs) and his family. According to Emerson:

The four-year-old daughter of new inside linebackers coach Kirk Olividatti has been battling leukemia, Richt announced. Olividatti’s wife Keely hasn’t left the hospital for 30 days, the head coach informed the crowd; she spoke to Richt on Monday, and agreed that Richt could make the daughter Kasyn’s fight public.

PWD

Over / Under?

Branden Smith (Image: Hipple)
A commenter yesterday reminded me that Isaiah Crowell and Branden Smith are both going to wear jersey #1 this season. This means they can't both be on the field at the same time.

So...what's the over under on the number of penalties we get because they are in the game at the same time? I say 1.5 and I'm taking the over.

Flip side...what's the over/under on the number of times we hear Richt say that he can't play Smith on offense more because of the confusion their jersey situation creates. I'm going with 2.5 and taking the over again.

Thoughts?

PWD

Profiles in Hope: Aaron Murray

Image: Hipple
Let's get the obvious bad part of this post out of the way: Who will Aaron Murray throw to? Georgia doesn't have a go to player to replace AJ Green. Brown, King, Toupe and Bennett were all highly recruited, were all full of promise and all have talent. None have stepped up to show themselves to be the rightful successor to AJ as The Man in the receiving corps. Conley has already jumped to third on the depth chart, so you can throw him in the mix, too. It might be weak sauce, but if we are to believe the 'recruit enough 4-5 stars at a position, you will have a someone work out' theory, one will work out.

We also have two possible All-Conference candidates at TE and at least one more that is a potential starter. The tight ends could be a whole separate profiles in hope article. Then there is Ray Drew Jay Rome, who would probably start as a freshman for half of the teams in the country.

The good news: Murray was sacked 24 times last season, yet only threw 8 interceptions. He completed 61+% of his throws and had 24 TDs. And 3000+ yards. Georgia was in the top 20 at long passing plays from scrimmage (30+ yards) last season. We probably won't go slinging it down field, especially until (or unless) one of the WRs step up, so I expect that yardage to go down. But given the opportunity to make good decisions, I trust Murray to do so. I think he'll complete 65%+ of his pass attempts in 2011.

One last thing, Aaron has another year of maturity and study under his belt. He'll be given more leeway in checking off at the line and we'll see the wrinkles in plays that naturally develop between guys that play ball together for a long time come to the forefront, which gets me back to the tight ends. Murray and Charles have been playing pitch and catch for seven years now. I look for them to have a Dan Fouts/Kellen Winslow type thing going this season.

Our problem last season wasn't offense. I'll grant we had some...lulls...on offense. I attribute those lulls to a single minded devotion to game plan, without the ability to adapt that plan. Having a QB that is in a better position to make on the field adjustments, and the confidence of his coaches in doing so, will provide a natural deviation to the game plan. Hopefully, that will be enough to prevent those lulls.

TD

The Margin for Error

Fear the Elf (Image: Hipple)
As I've said before, the program in 2011 has very little margin for error. It's not that the program is on life support or that there's a seat of unmanageable heat. It's also not as if the program is incapable of course correction and returning to 10+ win seasons.

All of those things are within our reach given the schedule and starting talent. The problem is that there's just no margin for error as there's simply no proven depth.

We're an injury or suspension away from scenarios like:

-- Playing Carlton Thomas in the Wild Elf Formation
-- Going from 32+ starts to zero at LT or Center
-- Dropping from Jarvis Jones to Chase Vasser at SAM

Other than tight end, what position has proven, reliable SEC-caliber depth? Any?

Dean Legge talked today about the 2007 "What Could Have Been" recruiting class. While he's correct overall, I think that particular recruiting class is water under the bridge. Most of the impact players from that class were in the NFL by Year 3 or 4. Very few are left for this season.

My concerns are more focused on the 2010 offensive signing class. How does a coaching staff with no offensive turnover deliver a class that in Year 2 has only one sure fire starter and only two more obvious meaningful contributors for the upcoming season?

2010 Signing Class (Offensive):

Starter:
OT - Kenarious Gates

Potential Meaningful Contributor in 2011:
RB - Ken Malcome
FB - Zander Ogletree

Who Knows When They'll Contribute:
QB - Hudson Mason
WR - Michael Bennett
OG - Kolton Houston

Didn't Qualify (yet):
WR - Lonnie Outlaw

No Longer in School:
OT - Brent Benedict

This is fixable. We just can't afford the bad luck injuries of 2003, 2006 or 2009. Nor can we afford to ever have a recruiting class on either side of the ball like the 2010 group above. Note: I'm not giving up on those guys. I'm just pointing out the lack of anticipated contribution in Year 2).

PWD

Georgia's Rushing Situation

After reading Quinton's post about King's departure, my first thought was there is no way Carlton Thomas has 86 career carries.  Lo and behold, Carlton had 64 rushes for 272 yards last season, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, and 22 rushes for 92 yards in 09, averaging....4.2 yards per carry.  There isn't a line in the world that would make Carlton a successful feature back in Georgia's current offensive scheme, but if he improves a little bit on that 4.2ypc while getting 20-25% of the rushing touches (7-9 rushes per game), I think I'd take that. I don't want to see him carry it more, especially if we continue to view him as a magical being that can run untouched through a line of players that outweigh him by 130 pounds, but thinking about him as a change of pace deal, I'm trending towards ok with him.

One other thing that popped up that I hadn't thought about until I looked at the stats:  Murray had 60+ non-sack rushes, averaging over 5.5ypc on those rushes. I wouldn't be surprised would love to see Aaron be a part of the change of pace, as well.  He is pretty quick and ran a bunch in high school.  We have a couple of QB keeper plays that work well, especially considering teams have to respect Murray's passing ability and the strong TE group that linebackers will have to cover.

I am not saying all is well, but factoring in what Branden Smith adds, I don't think the picture is as dire as I had feared, and it offers opportunity, through necessity, to open up the offense.

TD

Georgia Preseason Preamble

There are two things I keep thinking about when I start to write about the upcoming season:

1. How close to the Dawgs are to being overlooked due to the people putting an inordinate amount of weight on last year's performance having anything to do with this year's team.  Not to say they aren't related; they are.  It is too easy to say Georgia lost to UCF and move on to the next team without evaluating what has happened since then.  Similar thing happened in 2007 after the Sugar Bowl win over Hawaii. 
2. How close the Dawgs are to being rightly overlooked, with root causes of the recent past failures being the reason.  Failures of training, failures of scheme, and failures of development.  The answer to a turn around isn't simply saying run fewer quick draws or make the players eat right.  The answer is figuring out what the failures are and fixing them. DNA level failures.  Not doing so, and now, likely means a regime change in Athens.

I've talked about one of the changes that probably is the most obvious.  Getting guys stronger and eating better.  It remains to be seen if the new approach is working, but getting guys to lay off Waffle House and Burger King is a start.

I'm no schematitian, but as a team, we fail to utilize our best talent.  We fail to prepare for the most important times in games.  We blow time outs at crucial junctures.  We are on our heels and playing reactive football, on both sides of the ball, too much.   We don't find plays that work, then run those plays until the other team figures out how to stop them.  I'm bearish on this changing.  Several years ago, Georgia was singled out by the SEC officials for their hurry up offense and a rule interpretation was implemented to help defenses against hurry up offenses. Think about that, then think about the delay of game penalties and time outs we have blown in the recent years because we were unprepared for the next play.

The offensive line is thin.  We'll need inovative play calling to get guys open in space, without having to ask the linemen to create that space.  We'll need players who are ready to go from the day training camp opens.  We'll need those players to buy in and have each others back.  We'll need coaches that aren't afraid to fail and desperately want to succeed.  Not just succeed, but make the other team's coaches look badly outcoached.

I personally don't think there is any one answer to what has happened over the past few years. When you look at the downfall of large organizations, it is rarely one big thing that is the source of the downfall, it is almost always a plethora of small things that become cumulative.  Any one or two or three of those problems won't cause the downfall. I don't know if it has been a lack of oversight, lack of competence at key positions, or a lack of caring about either.  I do know incremental changes have been made the past two seasons, and we have tangible evidence of a mindset change at the top.  Very top.

Great leaders are adept at knowing personal and organizational weaknesses and isolating them.  Great leaders are adept at knowing what they are good at and maximizing those strengths.  For five plus years, we saw the great leader in Mark Richt.  For the past few, we haven't, at least to the best we can tell (I am willing to say the change in Dcordinator, although a year late, still has time to pay off due to implimentation lag time). 

Do I have faith in Coach Richt's ability to correct what has gone wrong?  I don't know, but I surely want to.  Do I have evidence that my faith wouldn't be misplaced? Absolutely.  There is also evidence that my faith would be.  Mark Richt lost to UCF, but he also was the coach that the SEC had to slow down.  Will he become the guy to slow down again?  To still be in Athens in 2012, I think he has to.

Georgia Bulldog Blogger Q&A

Thanks to everyone that added their answers to the five questions below.  Here are my answers to College Football Zealots Bulldog Blogger Roundtable Q&A:

1. Which game is more critical for Georgia to win: Boise State or South Carolina?
I can't chose both? Virginia Tech lost to Boise AND James Madison, but the story of their season was the ACC Championship and Orange Bowl berth, unless you are a Virginia fan and all you have is throwing Boise and James Madison in Hokies fans' faces. Or a Stanford fan, since the Orange Bowl win is all you have for the next 20 years.

I have to say South Carolina. Lose to Boise and we have to listen to the national media crow about Boise State's OMG!1! awesomeness. Lose to the Gamecocks and we have to listen to the Carolina fans crow about two in a row. And likely watch them play in the Georgia Dome again in December. Being a one-loss SEC champion is preferable to being a one-loss BCS at-large team.

2. Other than Isaiah Crowell, which incoming freshman do you think will have the biggest impact in 2011?
Got to be Ray Drew. If he shows up in shape, he'll probably start at the Dome against Boise State. Even if he doesn't start, he'll have significant playing time. Malcolm Mitchell and Zach DeBell will prove to be big-time freshmen, as well. 

3. Who are some under-the-radar guys that you think will step up for Georgia this year?
Bruce Figgins. He'll provide a very valuable, and needed, extra set of hands out of the backfield with the move from TE to FB. He isn't going to get more than 10 looks a game (handoffs and passes), but those will be money plays. His blocking ability allows some flexibility with TB personnel, as well. 

4. What makes you most excited about seeing Georgia play this year?
The potential. All of the pieces are in place to win the East. The East isn't what it was in the early 2000s. We have a returning QB that will probably be all conference...or more. The defense has a lot of upside, especially with the addition of John Jenkins in the middle. The schedule, outside of Boise State, is manageable. The new S&C program is passing the eyeball test. 

Georgia lost too many games by getting dominated in the 4th Q and inside their own 20 on defense. Stop both or either of those, which I think they can, and Georgia has a solid season. 

5. What makes you the most nervous about seeing Georgia play this year?
The potential for disaster. The offensive line is thin, the schedule is front-loaded, the running game is unproven, the receiving corps is less proven and the S&C program change could prove to not work. If Georgia isn't competitive and loses the first two games in blowouts, it will like a Georgia Tech fraternity party: ugly early. It won't be a fun year to be a Dawg fan with the kind of dissension that will occur.

6. Athlon Sports has rated the Dawgs at #14 and Phil Steele has them at #9 in their pre-season polls. Both have Georgia winning the SEC East and playing in the Capital One Bowl. What needs to happen for Georgia to live up to these lofty expectations.
Win ballgames. Crowell has to learn to pass block. Murray needs to get hooked up with the TEs and find another WR go-to guy.  Gathers, Jenkins, Drew, Jones, Ogletree and the rest of the defensive front seven have to be dominant.  We also have to be sound in in the defensive backfield.

Most importantly, the coaches need to trust themselves and their players. We were too tentative at times in play-calling and too unprepared inside the 20 on both ends of the field and both sides of the ball. Coach to win, instead of coaching to not lose. Georgia has the talent to stay with any team in the SEC, possibly probably with any team in the nation. Putting it all together and figuring out what has been missing from the intangibles side of the equation for the past few seasons is paramount to a resurgence in Athens.

College Fooball Zealots Roundtable

I was asked to participate in a Q&A with several Dawg bloggers to be posted Monday at College Football Zealots.  Hopefully, my answers to the following questions will be somewhat sound.

I'll post my answers early next week. What do you think?

1- Which game is more critical for Georgia to win: Boise State or South Carolina?

2- Other than Isaiah Crowell, which incoming freshman do you think will have the biggest impact in 2011?

3- Who are some under-the-radar guys that you think will step up for Georgia this year?

4- What makes you most excited about seeing Georgia play this year?

5- What makes you the most nervous about seeing Georgia play this year?

6- Athlon Sports has rated the Dawgs at #14 and Phil Steele has them at #9 in their pre-season polls. Both have Georgia winning the SEC East and playing in the Capital One Bowl. What needs to happen for Georgia to live up to these lofty expectations.

Football Stuff Forthcoming

Just wanted to give a heads up that I'll post some football stuff next week.  Hopefully, I'll have my TV times figured out and be in a better place to put a couple of hours into breaking down the forthcoming season. 

We are inside 90 days until kickoff, so it is time to get excited/start fretting.

Grantham Prologue

On the eve of the unveiling of Todd Grantham's new 3-4 scheme, I wanted to give a couple of links and ask a couple of questions about our new defense.  First, although these are old articles, our own Mark Schlabaugh has a couple of good pieces on the proliferation of the 3-4 and the personnel required to run it effectively.  Saban and Grantham figure prominently, but the articles notes that a bunch of teams are making the same switch this season. 

I have tried to avoid my general ambivalence and pessimism of last year or the co-existing duality of optimism and pessimism shown by Doug or Kyle.  But, the more I think about our returning personnel and the general state of the defense, the more uncertain I am about our defensive outlook.  I didn't say pessimistic, just uncertain.  

Here are the things I like.  Most importantly, I feel much more confident that our players will be fundamentally sound.  From what I've heard regarding our new defensive assistants, they are stressing sure tackling and technique.  Those two things were the most noticeable drop offs from VanGorder's death explosions to Willie's nudging, armless projectiles.  Second, we have a scheme that will require some additional prep work from week to week.  Although the 3-4 is spreading, it's still an exception from the 4-3 that most other teams in the SEC run.  That requires a different practice scheme for our opponents to simulate.  Third, I have faith in the Grantham brain.  He'll well thought of by people who know the 3-4 and has coached with some 3-4 masters.  He knows what he's doing, right?

But, I also have some misgivings.  First, how well can the Grantham mind-meld work on our linebackers?  While I want the scheme to confuse opposing QBs, sometimes the first year of a scheme change also confuses the people who are running that scheme.  Grantham has been optimistic in the preseason press, but it still has to face some very clever offensive coordinators this year.  Second, do we have the DL personnel to eat space and keep our LBs free enough to implement the stunts necessary to confuse and pulverize those opposing QBs?  Demarcus Dobbs is credible, but everyone else playing nose or end is a big, fat question mark.  They can stay fat, but they can't stay question marks.  Those guys have to step in and perform for the scheme to function properly.  (See for example Alabama's 3-4 without Mt. Cody, #31 in total defense, opposed to with him, #2 and #3 in total defense.)

So, what do you think?  Is Grantham the guy who returns us to the Russell/VanGorder "if we score more than 20 we'll win" defensive safety?  Or, will Grantham turn out to be someone about whom you say "how can that guy make that much money by producing that crappy of a defense?"  We need the former, because we've already seen enough of the latter.

Quinton